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Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions

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  • Ginn, William

Abstract

Supply chain disruptions have emerged as a critical factor influencing global economic conditions. This research examines the implications of global supply chain disruptions via Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model as it relates to equity returns. The analysis reveals that supply chain shocks can be destabilizing via lower output, higher inflation and lower equity returns. These novel findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ginn, William, 2024. "Global supply chain disruptions and financial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:239:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524002222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Omid Asadollah & Linda Schwartz Carmy & Md. Rezwanul Hoque & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3450-3486, August.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cong Yu & Dongdan Jiao & Yuchen Wei & Qi Wang, 2025. "How Does Global Supply Chain Pressure Affect Oil Prices in Futures Markets?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2024. "Climate pattern effects on global economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Jantadej, Kulaya & Kotcharin, Suntichai, 2025. "Navigating liquidity in turbulent waters: The impact of global supply chain pressures on maritime working capital management strategies," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Liu, Ruipeng, 2025. "Supply chain constraints and the predictability of the conditional distribution of international stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    5. Somani, Dhanashree & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2025. "Supply bottlenecks and machine learning forecasting of international stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PG).
    6. Liang, Xinye & He, Qi & Jin, Tianquan, 2025. "Chain-Leading enterprises' artificial intelligence adoption and supply chain disruption risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    7. Polat, Onur & Somani, Dhanashree & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar, 2025. "Shortages and machine-learning forecasting of oil returns volatility: 1900–2024," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Ginn, William & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Impact of supply chain pressures on financial leverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Adeel Riaz & Assad Ullah & Bashir Muhammad, 2025. "The impact of global supply chain pressure on the stock market: A sectoral view," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Necati Altemur & Ibrahim Halil Ekşi & William Ginn & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Effect of geopolitical and environmental disruptions on maritime trade security," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(2), pages 836-841.
    11. Zhangying Li & O-Chia Chuang & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2025. "The Roles of Global Supply Chain Pressure and Economic Conditions in Forecasting the VaR of Commodity Markets: A Quantile GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202528, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2024. "Do Shortages Forecast Aggregate and Sectoral U.S. Stock Market Realized Variance? Evidence from a Century of Data," Working Papers 202450, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Ginn, William & Saadaoui, Jamel & Salachas, Evangelos, 2025. "Can Green Transition Only Thrive with Price Stability?," MPRA Paper 126542, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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