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Effect of geopolitical and environmental disruptions on maritime trade security

Author

Listed:
  • Necati Altemur

    (Şebinkarahisar Vocational School Giresun University)

  • Ibrahim Halil Ekşi

    (Gaziantep University)

  • William Ginn

    (Labcorp, AI)

  • Jamel Saadaoui

    (University Paris 8, IEE, LED)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of global trade disruptions using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, focusing on the Red Sea Crisis, which has disrupted key maritime ports including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, and the severe drought constraining traffic through the Panama Canal. By analyzing cargo ship transit data before, during, and after these events, the study quantifies the effects of both geopolitical and environmental disruptions on global trade dynamics. The findings reveal displacement and increased volatility in trade patterns, highlighting the far-reaching impacts of such crises on international commerce. These results emphasize the need for geopolitical stability and environmental resilience in key trade routes, a conclusion that is also relevant for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Necati Altemur & Ibrahim Halil Ekşi & William Ginn & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Effect of geopolitical and environmental disruptions on maritime trade security," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(2), pages 836-841.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00395
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    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

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