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Demographic change and house prices: Headwind or tailwind?

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  • Jäger, Philipp
  • Schmidt, Torsten

Abstract

Using a cross-country dataset for 13 developed economies spanning from 1950 to 2012, we argue that the overall effect of the demographic transition on house prices has been negative. Extrapolating the historical relationship into the future, demographic downward pressure on house prices is likely to intensify.

Suggested Citation

  • Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Demographic change and house prices: Headwind or tailwind?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 82-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:82-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    2. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
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    4. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
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    6. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Vanessa Smith, L. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2013. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 94-115.
    8. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    9. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2022. "Demographic change, technological advance, and growth: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Uzuner, Gizem & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Housing sector and economic policy uncertainty: A GMM panel VAR approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 114-126.
    3. Teuta Balliu & Artan Spahiu, 2020. "Pre-Negotiation Activities: A Study of the Main Activities Undertaken by the Negotiators as Preparation for Negotiation," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 6, May - Aug.
    4. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Breidenbach, Philipp & Jäger, Philipp & Taruttis, Lisa, 2022. "Aging and real estate prices in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 953, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Ann , Jihee & Park, Cheolbeom, 2022. "Demographic Structure and House Prices in the United States: Reconciliation Using Metropolitan Area Data," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(3), pages 57-71, September.
    7. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Rong Fu & Dong Deng & Tao Liu, 2023. "The Impact of Aging on Housing Market: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-13, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Population aging; House prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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