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Aging and real estate prices in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Breidenbach, Philipp
  • Jäger, Philipp
  • Taruttis, Lisa

Abstract

Exploiting regional heterogeneity in population dynamics across more than 10,000 municipalities in Germany, we provide robust empirical evidence that population aging depresses real estate prices and rents. Using millions of individual real estate offers and detailed demographic data on the municipality level, we estimate that average sales prices in 2020 would have been up to 12% higher, if the population age distribution had been the same as in 2008. We show that population aging does not only reduce prices but also increases the availability of real estate. Moreover, we document substantial heterogeneity in price responses by dwelling type, real estate characteristics and urban-rural status which suggest that a lower demand for living space and live-cycle dissaving are driving our results. We predict that population aging will continue to put downward pressure on real estate prices and exacerbate regional disparities in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Breidenbach, Philipp & Jäger, Philipp & Taruttis, Lisa, 2022. "Aging and real estate prices in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 953, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:953
    DOI: 10.4419/96973117
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breidenbach Philipp & Schaffner Sandra, 2020. "Real estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED)," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 401-416, September.
    2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    3. Lyons, Ronan C., 2019. "Can list prices accurately capture housing price trends? Insights from extreme markets conditions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 228-232.
    4. Thomschke, Lorenz, 2015. "Changes in the distribution of rental prices in Berlin," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 88-100.
    5. Breidenbach Philipp & Kaeding Matthias & Schaffner Sandra, 2019. "Population Projection for Germany 2015–2050 on Grid Level (RWI-GEO-GRID-POP-Forecast)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 733-745, August.
    6. Swan, Craig, 1995. "Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 41-58, February.
    7. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Demographic change and house prices: Headwind or tailwind?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 82-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real estate prices; population aging; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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