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On Okun’s law in OECD countries: An analysis by age cohorts

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  • Zanin, Luca

Abstract

This study investigates Okun’s law in OECD countries by examining estimates for male and female age cohorts for the period 1998–2012. We find that the estimated Okun coefficients are not always statistically significant for each subgroup of the population. Our results also highlight a general common pattern of higher Okun coefficients for the youngest cohorts. This suggests that the young population, and particularly the young male population, tends to be most exposed to the business cycle in both developed and emerging OECD countries.

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  • Zanin, Luca, 2014. "On Okun’s law in OECD countries: An analysis by age cohorts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 243-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:125:y:2014:i:2:p:243-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.08.030
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    1. Luca Zanin & Giampiero Marra, 2012. "Rolling Regression Versus Time‐Varying Coefficient Modelling: An Empirical Investigation Of The Okun'S Law In Some Euro Area Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 91-108, January.
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    9. Oliver Hutengs & Georg Stadtmann, 2014. "Don’t trust anybody over 30: youth unemployment and Okun’s law in CEE countries," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(1), pages 1-16.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
    11. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Report 2012 [Rapport sur le développement dans le monde 2012]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4391, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    2. Abdessalem GOUIDER & Ridha NOUIRA & Faouzi SBOUI, 2018. "La relation croissance-chômage en Tunisie : validation de la spécification non linéaire de la loi d’Okun," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 47, pages 27-41.
    3. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    4. Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2017. "Revisiting the Okun relationship," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(28), pages 2749-2765, June.
    5. Gina Cristina Dimian & Liviu Stelian Begu & Josef Jablonsky, 2017. "Unemployment and labour market mismatch in the European Union Countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 13-44.
    6. Kavese Kambale & Phiri Andrew, 2020. "A Provincial Perspective of Nonlinear Okun’s Law for Emerging Markets: The Case of South Africa," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 30(3), pages 59-76, September.
    7. Luca Zanin, 2018. "The pyramid of Okun’s coefficient for Italy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 17-28, February.
    8. Pitorac Ruxandra, 2015. "The Specifics Of Okun’S Law In The Romanian Economy Between 2007 And 2013," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 50-53, February.
    9. G. C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Jan C. Ours, 2021. "Beyond Okun’s law: output growth and labor market flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1387-1409, March.
    10. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    11. Luca Zanin & Raffaella Calabrese, 2017. "Interaction effects of region-level GDP per capita and age on labour market transition rates in Italy," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Bod’a, Martin & Považanová, Mariana, 2021. "Output-unemployment asymmetry in Okun coefficients for OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-323.
    13. O’Leary, Nigel & Li, Ian W. & Gupta, Prashant & Blackaby, David, 2020. "Wellbeing trajectories around life events in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 499-509.
    14. Mindaugas Butkus & Janina Seputiene, 2019. "The Output Gap and Youth Unemployment: An Analysis Based on Okun’s Law," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-17, November.
    15. Thomas Obst, 2022. "Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries—The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 225-241, May.
    16. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    17. Imran Hussain Shah & Konstantinos Kollydas & Pak Yee Lee & Issam Malki & Crystal Chu, 2024. "Does R&D investment drive employment growth? Empirical evidence at industry level from Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 102-118, January.
    18. Andrew Evans, 2018. "Okun coefficients and participation coefficients by age and gender," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Louail Bilal & Ben Haj Hamida Hayet, 2021. "Asymmetry Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment Rates in the Arab countries: Application of the OKUN Law during 1960-2017," Management, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Luca Zanin, 2021. "On the estimation of Okun’s coefficient in some countries in Latin America: a comparison between OLS and GME estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1575-1592, March.
    21. Mindaugas Butkus & Kristina Matuzeviciute & Dovile Rupliene & Janina Seputiene, 2020. "Does Unemployment Responsiveness to Output Change Depend on Age, Gender, Education, and the Phase of the Business Cycle?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, November.
    22. Luca Zanin, 2016. "On Italian Households’ Economic Inadequacy Using Quali-Quantitative Measures," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 59-88, August.
    23. Mina Baliamoune, 2022. "Trade and Youth Labor Market Outcomes: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications," Research papers & Policy papers 1945, Policy Center for the New South.
    24. Chiara Mussida & Luca Zanin, 2020. "I found a better job opportunity! Voluntary job mobility of employees and temporary contracts before and after the great recession in France, Italy and Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 47-98, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Age cohorts; Economic growth; Labor market; OECD countries; Okun’s law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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