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Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries

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  • Cho, Dooyeon
  • Rhee, Dong-Eun

Abstract

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption. The estimated consumption function shows smooth regime switching depending on the debt-to-GDP ratio, and a higher level of government debt crowds out private consumption to a greater extent.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176513004606
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 121 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 504-507

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:121:y:2013:i:3:p:504-507
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Keywords: Consumption; Government debt; Nonlinearity; Panel smooth transition regression error correction model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
  • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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  1. Ludwig, Alexander & Sløk, Torsten, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  4. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2011. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 11/52, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Andres Gonzalez & Timo Terasvirta & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," Research Paper Series 165, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  6. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Gernot Müller & Andre Meier & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 12/150, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  10. Robert-Paul Berben & Teunis Brosens, 2005. "The Impact of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries," DNB Working Papers 045, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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