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Do hard pegs avoid currency crises? An evaluation using matching estimators

  • Esaka, Taro
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    Using the bias-corrected matching estimators of Abadie and Imbens (2006) as a control for the self-selection problem of regime adoption, we estimate the average treatment effect of hard pegs on the occurrence of currency crises. We find the evidence that hard pegs significantly decrease the likelihood of currency crises compared with other regimes.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 113 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (October)
    Pages: 35-38

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:113:y:2011:i:1:p:35-38
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    1. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    2. Esaka, Taro, 2010. "De facto exchange rate regimes and currency crises: Are pegged regimes with capital account liberalization really more prone to speculative attacks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1109-1128, June.
    3. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2004. "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, 01.
    5. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, February.
    6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fasika Damte Haile & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 554-570, 09.
    9. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    10. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    11. Paolo Mauro & Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes; A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Brahima Coulibaly, 2009. "Currency unions and currency crises: an empirical assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 199-221.
    13. Alberto Abadie & David Drukker & Jane Leber Herr & Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Implementing matching estimators for average treatment effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 290-311, September.
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