Is there an optimistic bias on betting markets?
Bettors are subject to an optimistic bias when betting on the team they support. This paper shows that this individual bias does not affect betting odds on British teams in association football (soccer), as it is often argued.
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- Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001.
"Learning to be Overconfident,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, "undated". "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, "undated". "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
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- Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 1998. "Why are some favourite-longshot biases positive and others negative?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1505-1510.
- David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
- Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
- Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
- Les Coleman, 2004. "New light on the longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 315-326.
- Yates, J. Frank & Lee, Ju-Whei & Shinotsuka, Hiromi & Patalano, Andrea L. & Sieck, Winston R., 1998. "Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 89-117, May.
- Richard Zuber & Patrick Yiu & Reinhold Lamb & John Gandar, 2005. "Investor-fans? An examination of the performance of publicly traded English Premier League teams," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 305-313.
- Paul W. Grimes, 2002. "The Overconfident Principles of Economics Student: An Examination of a Metacognitive Skill," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 15-30, January.
- Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May.
- Michael A. Smith & David Paton & Leighton Vaughan Williams, 2006. "Market Efficiency in Person-to-Person Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 673-689, November.
- Kenneth Oliven & Thomas A. Rietz, 2004. "Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 336-351, March.
- Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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