Does precipitation and runoff variability affect treaty cooperation between states sharing international bilateral rivers?
Elevated world temperatures, as forecasted by the 4th IPCC report, are expected to increase the hydrological cycle activity, leading to a change in precipitation patterns and increase in evapotranspiration. These in turn are expected to affect river runoff and water variability, depending on basin latitude. In this paper, we assess the impact of water supply variability on 'treaty cooperation' (defined here as the likelihood of treaty formation and number of treaties formed) between international bilateral river basin riparian states. The water variability measure that we use captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability. We employ additional control variables adopted from economic and international relations theories on international cooperation. The main results suggest that water supply variability in international bilateral basins creates an impetus for cooperation. Our results support an inverted U-shaped relationship between water supply variability and treaty cooperation. Similarly, interactions between the states in the form of diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation. Uneven economic power between the riparian states inhibits treaty cooperation. The geography variables we use are insignificant in all the estimated relationships.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jaroslav Tir & John T. Ackerman, 2009. "Politics of Formalized River Cooperation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(5), pages 623-640, September.
- Robert T. Deacon, 1994. "Deforestation and the Rule of Law in a Cross-Section of Countries," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 70(4), pages 414-430.
- Ambec, Stefan & Ehlers, Lars, 2008. "Sharing a river among satiable agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 35-50, September.
- Young, Oran R., 1989. "The politics of international regime formation: managing natural resources and the environment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 349-375, June.
- Janmaat, Johannus & Ruijs, Arjan, 2007. "Sharing the load? Floods, droughts, and managing international rivers," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 573-592, August.
- Ambec, Stefan & Sprumont, Yves, 2002.
"Sharing a River,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 453-462, December.
- Ambec, S. & Sprumont, Y., 2000. "Sharing a River," Papers 00-06, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
- AMBEC, Steve & SPRUMONT, Yves, 2000. "Sharing a River," Cahiers de recherche 2000-08, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ambec, S. & Sprumont, Y., 2000. "Sharing a River," Cahiers de recherche 2000-08, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ambec, Stefan & Sprumont, Yves, 2000. "Sharing a River," Cahiers de recherche 0006, GREEN.
- Indra de Soysa & John R. Oneal & Yong-Hee Park, 1997. "Testing Power-Transition Theory Using Alternative Measures of National Capabilities," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(4), pages 509-528, August.
- Klaus Abbink & Lars Moller & Sarah O’Hara, 2010. "Sources of Mistrust: An Experimental Case Study of a Central Asian Water Conflict," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 283-318, February.
- Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2008. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 249-266, October.
- Erik Ansink & Arjan Ruijs, 2007. "Climate Change and the Stability of Water Allocation Agreements," Working Papers 2007.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Polachek, Solomon W, 1997. "Why Democracies Cooperate More and Fight Less: The Relationship between International Trade and Cooperation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 295-309, August.
- Congleton, Roger D, 1992. "Political Institutions and Pollution Control," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 412-421, August.
- Shlomi Dinar, 2009. "Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 9(1), pages 109-135, February.
- Sigman Hilary, 2003. "Does Trade Promote Environmental Coordination?: Pollution in International Rivers," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-26, December.
- Indra De Soysa, 2002. "Paradise is a Bazaar? Greed, Creed, and Governance in Civil War, 1989-99," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(4), pages 395-416, July.
- Michiel S. de Vries, 1990. "Interdependence, Cooperation and Conflict: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 27(4), pages 429-444, November.
- Eric Neumayer, 2002. "Does Trade Openness Promote Multilateral Environmental Cooperation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 815-832, 06. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)