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Credit market imperfection, labor supply complementarity, and output volatility

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  • Agliari, Anna
  • Vachadze, George

Abstract

This paper argues that output volatility depends on the degree of credit market imperfection. In the early stages of financial development, agents are constrained in their borrowing ability. As a result, the individual savings, affected by the labor supply, play a dual role in the economy, having repercussions on the interest rate. On the one hand, high savings imply high investment, low marginal product of capital and thus low interest rate. On the other hand, high savings affect the agents' ability to run highly productive investment projects, which increases the interest rate. When the former effect is dominant, a dynamic complementarity between individual and aggregate labor supply arises. This leads to a local and global indeterminacy of equilibrium paths. If the borrowing constraint is relaxed, the complementarity between individual and aggregate labor supply decisions weakens, equilibrium becomes globally unique and the possibility of having aggregate fluctuations in output disappears.

Suggested Citation

  • Agliari, Anna & Vachadze, George, 2014. "Credit market imperfection, labor supply complementarity, and output volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 45-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:38:y:2014:i:c:p:45-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.039
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Borrowing constraint; Credit cycles; Elastic labor supply; Endogenous fluctuations; Output volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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