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Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from wavelet analysis

  • Durai, S. Raja Sethu
  • Bhaduri, Saumitra N.

The negative relationship between real stock return and inflation puzzled many as it contradicts conventional Fisherian wisdom. Fama [Fama, E.F. (1981), "Stock returns, real activity, inflation and money", American Economic Review, 71(September), 545-564.] gave an explanation for this negative relationship with two propositions that links real stock return and inflation through real output. This study revisits Fama's hypothesis for India in the post-liberalized period from a developing country perspective. Examining this relationship on the time-scale decomposition from a wavelet multi-resolution analysis suggests that Fama's hypothesis holds only for the long time scale and remains as a puzzle for the other time scales.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 1089-1092

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:5:p:1089-1092
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and inflation: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 435-444, June.
  2. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1996. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 237-245.
  3. Ram, Rati & Spencer, David E, 1983. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 463-70, June.
  4. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
  5. Ramazan Genay & Faruk Seļuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2003. "Systematic risk and timescales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 108-116.
  6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  7. Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1997. "The analysis of foreign exchange data using waveform dictionaries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 341-372, December.
  8. Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 49-71, March.
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