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The welfare state, thresholds, and economic growth

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  • Fic, Tatiana
  • Ghate, Chetan

Abstract

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies expe-rienced during 1970-1975 are preceded by movements to a high welfare state regime. This suggests that expanding welfare state regimes are associated with low economic growth regimes, while contracting welfare state regimes are associated with high growth regimes. However, we also find that the structural decline in growth rates leads to a downward structural break in the welfare state for many welfare state economies. This suggests that declining growth regimes are associated with contracting welfare state regimes, as lower growth forces politicians to cut the size of the welfare state. We also report strong evidence that both expansion and contractions in the welfare state affects growth non-linearly. These results are able to characterize a predictable and general pattern of welfare state-growth evolution.
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  • Fic, Tatiana & Ghate, Chetan, 2005. "The welfare state, thresholds, and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 571-598, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:22:y:2005:i:3:p:571-598
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernadeta Baran, 2015. "Welfare State Challenges And The Concept Of Basic Income," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 9(1), pages 275-289.
    2. Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões & João Sousa Andrade, 2014. "Estado Social, Quantis, Não-Linearidades e Desempenho Económico: Uma Avaliação Empírica," GEMF Working Papers 2014-21, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    3. Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte & João Sousa Andrade, 2014. "Assessing the Impact of the Welfare State on Economic Growth: A Survey of Recent Developments," GEMF Working Papers 2014-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Jesus Clemente & Carmen Marcuello & Antonio Montañes, 2012. "Government Social Spending and GDP: has there been a change in social policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2895-2905, August.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:270-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:jes:journl:y:2018:v:9:p:111-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. João Sousa Andrade & Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Despesa Pública em Educação e Saúde e Crescimento Económico: Um Contributo para o Debate sobre as Funções Sociais do Estado," GEMF Working Papers 2013-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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