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The Welfare State, Thresholds, and Economic Growth

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  • Tatiana Fic
  • Chetan Ghate

Abstract

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies expe-rienced during 1970-1975 are preceded by movements to a high welfare state regime. This suggests that expanding welfare state regimes are associated with low economic growth regimes, while contracting welfare state regimes are associated with high growth regimes. However, we also find that the structural decline in growth rates leads to a downward structural break in the welfare state for many welfare state economies. This suggests that declining growth regimes are associated with contracting welfare state regimes, as lower growth forces politicians to cut the size of the welfare state. We also report strong evidence that both expansion and contractions in the welfare state affects growth non-linearly. These results are able to characterize a predictable and general pattern of welfare state-growth evolution.

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  • Tatiana Fic & Chetan Ghate, 2004. "The Welfare State, Thresholds, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 424, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp424
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alessandro Crociata & Massimiliano Agovino & Donatella Furia & Giacomo Osmi & Nicola Mattoscio & Massimiliano Cerciello, 2020. "Impulse and time persistence of disaggregate welfare expenditure on growth in the EU," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 13-38, April.
    3. Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte & João Sousa Andrade, 2014. "Assessing the Impact of the Welfare State on Economic Growth: A Survey of Recent Developments," GEMF Working Papers 2014-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte & João Sousa Andrade, 2014. "Assessing the Impact of the Welfare State on Economic Growth: A Survey of Recent Developments," GEMF Working Papers 2014-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    5. Awaworyi Churchill, S. & Yew, S.L., 2017. "Are government transfers harmful to economic growth? A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 270-287.
    6. Jesus Clemente & Carmen Marcuello & Antonio Montañes, 2012. "Government Social Spending and GDP: has there been a change in social policy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2895-2905, August.
    7. Nakabayashi, Masaki, 2019. "From family security to the welfare state: Path dependency of social security on the difference in legal origins," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 280-293.
    8. Adelaide Duarte & Marta Simões & João Sousa Andrade, 2014. "Estado Social, Quantis, Não-Linearidades e Desempenho Económico: Uma Avaliação Empírica," GEMF Working Papers 2014-21, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. João A. S. ANDRADE & Adelaide P. S. DUARTE & Marta C. N. SIMÕES, 2018. "Education and health: welfare state composition and growth across country groups," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 9, pages 111-144, December.
    10. João Sousa Andrade & Marta Simões & Adelaide Duarte, 2013. "Despesa Pública em Educação e Saúde e Crescimento Económico: Um Contributo para o Debate sobre as Funções Sociais do Estado," GEMF Working Papers 2013-18, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Welfare state; Structural change; Regime switching models; Positive political economy; Endogenous growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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