Club convergence of real wages in the European union

This study analyzes real wage convergence within the European Union, scrutinizing it on both regional and national scales. It questions the prevalent notion that open labor movement within the EU naturally leads to wage parity. Using a flexible log t regression and clustering algorithm, the research uncovers a lack of real wage convergence across all EU countries and regions. Instead, it identifies distinct convergence clubs based on real wages, delineated as core versus peripheral countries, and further divided into four regional categories. These findings suggest the existence of significant differences between the core and peripheral countries, hindering wage equalization. Clubs converge to different steady states which yield substantially different average real wages. At the national level, the formation of these wage-based clubs is influenced by the output gap and unemployment benefits, competitiveness and labor productivity, trade integration, and partly by human capital and development level. This study's results are robust and consistent with economic theories concerning real wage determinants. On the regional front, the analysis reveals a complex interplay of multiple variables affecting club formation, with no significant distinctions between certain club pairings. The findings highlight the complex dynamics of wage convergence in the EU, influenced by both economic and non-economic factors. The differences between core and peripheral EU countries are still strong and affect labor market outcomes and real wage convergence.