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Club convergence in state fragility: Global insights

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  • Koseoglu, Ahmet
  • Yucel, Ali Gokhan

Abstract

This letter presents the first study on the convergence of state fragility, measured by the Fragile States Index. Applying the club convergence and clustering test of Phillips and Sul (2007), we find no evidence of overall convergence but identify nine distinct groups of countries following separate long-term trajectories. The existence of multiple convergence clubs underscores the substantial disparities in state fragility among countries. Furthermore, the distribution of countries within these convergence clubs is highly asymmetric, with many countries in less stable groups, suggesting a potential stability trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Koseoglu, Ahmet & Yucel, Ali Gokhan, 2025. "Club convergence in state fragility: Global insights," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s0165176525001181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    2. Chuku Chuku & Kenneth Onye, 2019. "Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 1101-1140, August.
    3. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "A cross-regional analysis of military expenditure, state fragility and economic growth in Africa," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 2885-2915, November.
    4. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2011. "Fragile States And Development Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 371-398, June.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    6. Vale, Sofia, 2024. "Club convergence in the eurozone: A look at inequality dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    7. Kerui Du, 2017. "Econometric convergence test and club clustering using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(4), pages 882-900, December.
    8. Arčabić, Vladimir & Globan, Tomislav & Markušić, Goran, 2024. "Club convergence of real wages in the European union," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 2026-2048.
    9. Simon Feeny & Alberto Posso & Jonathan Regan-Beasley, 2015. "Handle with care: fragile states and the determinants of fragility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1073-1085, March.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

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