IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v80y2023icp532-543.html

Policy uncertainty and air pollution: Evidence from the turnover of local officials in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Xiaofei
  • Ma, Jie
  • Gao, Yanyan
  • Li, Bin
  • Chen, Xueli
  • Song, Malin

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of policy uncertainty on air pollution, using the turnover of local officials in China as a quasi-natural experiment. The results from the two-way fixed effects model show that policy uncertainty caused by the turnover of different officials produces contrasting effects on air pollution. While the turnover of the mayor has no effect on air pollution, the turnover of the municipal party committee secretary deteriorates it. Two-Stage Least Square estimation confirms these results where the age and tenure of officials were used as instrumental variables of policy uncertainty. The results are robust after endogenous treatments and robustness tests. The mechanism analysis further indicates that policy uncertainty worsens air quality by weakening environmental regulation and crowding out green innovation. Moreover, the impact is more pronounced in smaller and less developed cities. The conclusions provide policy implications for environmental governance in the period of policy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Xiaofei & Ma, Jie & Gao, Yanyan & Li, Bin & Chen, Xueli & Song, Malin, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and air pollution: Evidence from the turnover of local officials in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 532-543.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:80:y:2023:i:c:p:532-543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.08.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592623002023
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2023.08.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Guojun & Fan, Maoyong & Zhou, Maigeng, 2016. "The effect of air pollution on mortality in China: Evidence from the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 18-39.
    2. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Tanaka, Shinsuke, 2015. "Environmental regulations on air pollution in China and their impact on infant mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 90-103.
    4. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    5. Wang, Yun & Sun, Xiaohua & Guo, Xu, 2019. "Environmental regulation and green productivity growth: Empirical evidence on the Porter Hypothesis from OECD industrial sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 611-619.
    6. Ruiqi Wang & Huanchen Tang & Xin Ma, 2022. "Can Carbon Emission Trading Policy Reduce PM2.5? Evidence from Hubei, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, August.
    7. Wen Ming & Zhengqing Zhou & Hongshan Ai & Huimin Bi & Yuan Zhong, 2020. "COVID-19 and Air Quality: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2422-2442, August.
    8. Xueping Wu & Ming Gao, 2021. "Effects of different environmental regulations and their heterogeneity on air pollution control in China," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 140-166, December.
    9. Wen Ming & Zhengqing Zhou & Hongshan Ai & Huimin Bi & Yuan Zhong, 2020. "COVID-19 and Air Quality: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2422-2442, August.
    10. Yuan, Gecheng & Ye, Qin & Sun, Yongping, 2021. "Financial innovation, information screening and industries’ green innovation — Industry-level evidence from the OECD," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Chen, Yuyu & Jin, Ginger Zhe & Kumar, Naresh & Shi, Guang, 2013. "The promise of Beijing: Evaluating the impact of the 2008 Olympic Games on air quality," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 424-443.
    13. Tang, Pengcheng & Jiang, Qisheng & Mi, Lili, 2021. "One-vote veto: The threshold effect of environmental pollution in China's economic promotion tournament," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Chen, Shaojian & Mao, Hui & Feng, Zongxian, 2020. "Political uncertainty and firm entry: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing industries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 16-30.
    15. Zhu, Juan & Jiang, Dequan & Shen, Yongjian & Shen, Yuxin, 2021. "Does regional air quality affect executive turnover at listed companies in China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 428-436.
    16. Thi H.H. Nguyen & Mohamed H. Elmagrhi & Collins G. Ntim & Yue Wu, 2021. "Environmental performance, sustainability, governance and financial performance: Evidence from heavily polluting industries in China," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 2313-2331, July.
    17. Torre, Davide La & Liuzzi, Danilo & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Transboundary pollution externalities: Think globally, act locally?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    18. Hering, Laura & Poncet, Sandra, 2014. "Environmental policy and exports: Evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-318.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Ailing & Zhang, Qihao & Tang, Zheng & Qiu, Jinlong, 2025. "Judicial independence and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Zhang, Renjie & Zhu, Guiyi, 2024. "Green public procurement and firms' pollution emissions: Does demand-side environmental policy matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1958-1978.
    3. Mao, Fengfu & Yuan, Yue & Zhang, Fan, 2025. "Firm-level perception of uncertainty, risk aversion, and corporate real estate investment: Evidence from China's listed firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1428-1441.
    4. Xiaoya Zhu & Xiaohua Meng & Zhouzhou Lin & Fangzhou Zhou, 2026. "Environmental window effects of official turnover in China," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hongshan Ai & Xiaoqing Tan & Zhen Xia, 2022. "RETRACTED: The Effects of Environmental Regulations on Medical Expenses: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhao, Bing & Li, Xiao-Lin & Ding, Hui, 2021. "Policy uncertainty and sectoral stock market volatility in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 557-573.
    3. Yu, Zhen & Xiao, Yao & Li, Jinpo, 2021. "Firm-level perception of uncertainty and innovation activity: Textual evidence from China's A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Kong, Dongmin & Liang, Junwei & Liu, Chenhao, 2022. "Invisible enemy: The health impact of ozone," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Huang, Zhi-xiong & Yang, Xiandong, 2021. "Carbon emissions and firm innovation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 503-513.
    6. Shuddhasattwa Rafiq & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2016. "Effect of Internal Migration on Air and Water Pollution in China," Monash Economics Working Papers 27-16, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Yu, Jian & Shi, Xunpeng & Guo, Dongmei & Yang, Longjian, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm carbon emissions: Evidence using a China provincial EPU index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Liao, Jiaqi & Zhang, Ning, 2024. "Environmental regulation and manufacturing employment: Evidence from China's Eleventh Five-Year Plan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Jin, Gang & Yu, Binbin & Shen, Kunrong, 2021. "Domestic trade and energy productivity in China: An inverted U-shaped relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Low Soo-Wah & Lain-Tze Tee & Md. Akther Uddin & Si-Roei Kew & Mabruk Billah & Faik Bilgili, 2026. "Contemporaneous and lagged connectedness among international categorical economic policy uncertainty and ASEAN-5 stock markets: Do policy uncertainty sources and determinants matter?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, December.
    11. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "Effect of internal migration on the environment in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 31-44.
    12. Ai, Hongshan & Tan, Xiaoqing & Zhou, Shengwen & Zhou, Yuhan & Xing, Hongye, 2023. "The impact of environmental regulation on carbon emissions: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1067-1079.
    13. Yi Zhang & Mengyang Wang & Tao Shi & Huan Huang & Qi Huang, 2023. "Health Damage of Air Pollution, Governance Uncertainty and Economic Growth," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Jianxin Wu & Ziwei Feng & Chunbo Ma, 2024. "Promotion Incentives and Environmental Regulation: Evidence from China’s Environmental One-Vote Veto Evaluation Regime," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(1), pages 257-286, January.
    15. Wang, Linfeng & Shi, Tie & Chen, Hanyi, 2023. "Air pollution and infant mortality: Evidence from China," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    16. Yue Hua & Yue Lu & Ruili Zhao, 2022. "Global value chain engagement and air pollution: Evidence from Chinese firms," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 708-727, July.
    17. Cheng, Maoyong & Geng, Hongyan, 2021. "Do local firms employ political activities to respond to political uncertainty?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Fan, Maoyong & Jiang, Hanchen & Zhou, Maigeng, 2023. "Beyond particulate matter: New evidence on the causal effects of air pollution on mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Ai, Hongshan & Tan, Xiaoqing, 2025. "The impact of exposure to pipeline gas connection during pregnancy on child development: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Thi Thanh Ha DOAN & Asei ITO & Changyuan LUO & Hongyong ZHANG, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms," Discussion papers 25112, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:80:y:2023:i:c:p:532-543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.