IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v32y2008i5p1701-1720.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification

Author

Listed:
  • Thijssen, Jacco J.J.

Abstract

This paper analyses a real options model of mergers and takeovers between two firms experiencing different, but correlated, uncertainty. It is assumed that mergers do not just lead to efficiency gains, but are also an act of diversification. Due to the latter assumption the region where a merger is optimal is a bounded interval and not a half-space as in most real options models. It is shown that if the roles of the bidder and the target are determined endogenously the option value of the mergers vanishes completely, implying that, in equilibrium, the mergers occur sooner than when these roles are exogenously given. It is also shown that mergers can be optimal even if synergies are negative.

Suggested Citation

  • Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:1701-1720
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(07)00177-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaozhong Hu & Bernt Øksendal, 1998. "Optimal time to invest when the price processes are geometric Brownian motions," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 295-310.
    2. Bart M. Lambrecht & Stewart C. Myers, 2007. "A Theory of Takeovers and Disinvestment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 809-845, April.
    3. Dirk Hackbarth & Erwan Morellec, 2008. "Stock Returns in Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    4. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Keppo, Jussi, 2002. "The impact of delivery lags on irreversible investment under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 173-180, January.
    5. Mitchell, Mark L. & Mulherin, J. Harold, 1996. "The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-229, June.
    6. Luis Alvarez & Rune Stenbacka, 2006. "Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 417-441, September.
    7. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    8. Olsen, Trond E. & Stensland, Gunnar, 1992. "On optimal timing of investment when cost components are additive and follow geometric diffusions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-51, January.
    9. Nash, John, 1950. "The Bargaining Problem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 18(2), pages 155-162, April.
    10. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    11. Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
    12. Jacco Thijssen, 2007. "Ramsey Waits: A Theory of Non-Exclusive Real Options with First-Mover Advantages," Discussion Papers 07/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
    14. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1988. "Characteristics of Targets of Hostile and Friendly Takeovers," NBER Chapters, in: Corporate Takeovers: Causes and Consequences, pages 101-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Luis Alvarez & Rune Stenbacka, 2003. "Optimal risk adoption: a real options approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(1), pages 123-147, December.
    16. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    17. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
    18. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2004. "The timing and terms of mergers motivated by economies of scale," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 41-62, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nishide, Katsumasa & Tian, Yuan, 2011. "Compensation measures for alliance formation: A real options analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 219-228.
    2. Ebina, Takeshi & Kumakura, Yuya & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Hostile takeovers or friendly mergers? Real options analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Slutzky, Pablo, 2021. "The hidden costs of being public: Evidence from multinational firms operating in an emerging market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 606-626.
    5. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "When to buy or sell in supply chains with the presence of mergers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 137-145.
    6. Tumellano Sebehela, 2017. "Game Options," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Guthrie, Graeme & Hobbs, Cameron, 2021. "How managerial ownership and the market for corporate control can improve investment timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. A. Mantovi, 2009. "Long run value stabilization in a real options perspective," Economics Department Working Papers 2009-EP01, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
    9. Dirk Hackbarth & Bart Taub, 2022. "Does the Potential to Merge Reduce Competition?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5364-5383, July.
    10. Chi Man Leung & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2018. "Real options signaling game models for dynamic acquisition under information asymmetry," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(1), pages 35-63, May.
    11. Guthrie, Graeme, 2021. "A dynamic model of managerial entrenchment and the positive incentives it creates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Norvald Instefjord & Hiroyuki Nakata, 2023. "Micro-Prudential Regulation and Loan Monitoring," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 339-362, June.
    13. Lukas, Elmar & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2023. "On the determinants of the dynamic choice between mergers and tender offers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Yanzhao Li & Ju'e Guo & Yongwu Li & Xu Zhang, 2021. "Optimal exit decision of venture capital under time-inconsistent preferences," Papers 2103.11557, arXiv.org.
    15. Gamba, Andrea & Tesser, Matteo, 2009. "Structural estimation of real options models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 798-816, April.
    16. Graham, Jeffrey, 2011. "Strategic real options under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 922-934, June.
    17. Paulo J. Pereira & Artur Rodrigues, 2015. "A theory on merger timing and announcement returns," NIPE Working Papers 13/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    18. Pablo Moran, 2017. "Information Revelation in Merger Waves," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 174-233.
    19. Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Bargaining merger terms and the effect on the announcement returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 510-521.
    20. Yanzhao Li & Ju-e Guo & Shaolong Sun & Yongwu Li, 2022. "How time-inconsistent preferences influence venture capital exit decisions? A new perspective for grandstanding," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    21. repec:hok:dpaper:362 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Mirosław Wasilewski & Serhiy Zabolotnyy & Dmytro Osiichuk, 2021. "Characteristics and Shareholder Wealth Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions Involving European Renewable Energy Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, November.
    23. Lukas, Elmar & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Designing optimal M&A strategies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-20.
    24. Dockner, Engelbert J. & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M., 2019. "Dynamic capital structure choice and investment timing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-80.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pablo Moran, 2017. "Information Revelation in Merger Waves," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 174-233.
    2. Dirk Hackbarth & Jianjun Miao, "undated". "The Timing and Returns of Mergers and Acquisitions in Oligopolistic Industries," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-022, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun, 2012. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in oligopolistic industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 585-609.
    4. Tarsalewska, Monika, 2015. "The timing of mergers along the production chain, capital structure, and risk dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 51-64.
    5. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "Data Dependent Rules For Selection Of The Number Of Leads And Lags In The Dynamic Ols Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1425-1441, October.
    6. Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Bargaining merger terms and the effect on the announcement returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 510-521.
    7. Lukas, Elmar & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2019. "Designing optimal M&A strategies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2008. "Financing and takeovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 556-581, March.
    9. Paulo J. Pereira & Artur Rodrigues, 2015. "A theory on merger timing and announcement returns," NIPE Working Papers 13/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Weeds, Helen & Mason, Robin, 2010. "The Timing of Takeovers in Growing and Declining Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Gary Gorton & Matthias Kahl & Richard Rosen, 2005. "Eat or Be Eaten: A Theory of Mergers and Merger Waves," NBER Working Papers 11364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Negotiating M&As under uncertainty: The influence of managerial flexibility on the first-mover advantage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-35.
    13. Chi Man Leung & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2018. "Real options signaling game models for dynamic acquisition under information asymmetry," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 41(1), pages 35-63, May.
    14. Liu, Qi & Sun, Xian & Wu, Hong, 2019. "Premier advisory services for VIP acquirers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-25.
    15. Zhuming Chen & Sijia Zhang & Tao Lin, 2020. "Optimal Timing And Terms In A Vertical Merger With Two Sources Of Uncertainty," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 345-372, May.
    16. Guthrie, Graeme & Hobbs, Cameron, 2021. "How managerial ownership and the market for corporate control can improve investment timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    17. Martynova, Marina & Renneboog, Luc, 2008. "A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2148-2177, October.
    18. Lukas, Elmar & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2023. "On the determinants of the dynamic choice between mergers and tender offers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Lukas, Elmar & Reuer, Jeffrey J. & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Earnouts in mergers and acquisitions: A game-theoretic option pricing approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 256-263.
    20. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "When to buy or sell in supply chains with the presence of mergers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 137-145.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:5:p:1701-1720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.