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Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options

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  • Luis Alvarez
  • Rune Stenbacka

Abstract

We design a compound real options model, which determines the timing of takeovers and characterizes the distribution of the associated surplus. We delineate a relation between the bargaining power of the acquiring firm and the takeover incentives. The takeover threshold is decreasing as a function of the expected primary takeover gain and the embedded divestment gain. Decreased implementation uncertainty stimulates takeover activity. This uncertainty concerns the delay until either primary takeover synergies or subsequent divestment gains are realized. We demonstrate how the relation between volatility and takeover timing depends on the functional form of the profit flow with implementation uncertainty. Copyright Oxford University Press 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Alvarez & Rune Stenbacka, 2006. "Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 417-441, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:10:y:2006:i:3:p:417-441
    DOI: 10.1007/s10679-006-9002-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2008. "Strategic merger waves: A theory of musical chairs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Rosenkranz, Stephanie & Weitzel, Utz, 2007. "Bargaining in Mergers and Termination Fees," CEPR Discussion Papers 6210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Banerjee, Shantanu & Güçbilmez, Ufuk & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2014. "Optimal exercise of jointly held real options: A Nash bargaining approach with value diversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 565-578.
    4. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    5. Paulo J. Pereira & Artur Rodrigues, "undated". "A theory on merger timing and announcement returns," NIPE Working Papers 13/2015, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    6. Lukas, Elmar & Welling, Andreas, 2012. "Negotiating M&As under uncertainty: The influence of managerial flexibility on the first-mover advantage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 29-35.

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