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A theory on merger timing and announcement returns

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    This paper develops a dynamic model for the timing and terms of mergers and acquisitions. In contrast to other models, we show that firms agree about the timing independently from how the merger surplus is shared. Firms agree on the timing and discuss the sharing rule of the merger surplus according to their bargaining power or some other exogenous factor. We also show that, under asymmetric information, the combination of surprises regarding merger timing and merger terms, can produce either negative or positive abnormal returns for the merging firms.

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    File URL: http://www.nipe.eeg.uminho.pt/Uploads/WP_2015/NIPE_WP_13_2015.pdf
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    Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 13/2015.

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    Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:13/2015
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    Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal

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    Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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    1. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    2. Bart M. Lambrecht & Stewart C. Myers, 2007. "A Theory of Takeovers and Disinvestment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 809-845, April.
    3. Bradley, Michael & Desai, Anand & Kim, E. Han, 1988. "Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-40, May.
    4. Tarsalewska, Monika, 2015. "The timing of mergers along the production chain, capital structure, and risk dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 51-64.
    5. Dirk Hackbarth & Erwan Morellec, 2008. "Stock Returns in Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1252, June.
    6. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & René M. Stulz, 2007. "How Do Diversity of Opinion and Information Asymmetry Affect Acquirer Returns?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 2047-2078, November.
    7. Luis Alvarez & Rune Stenbacka, 2006. "Takeover Timing, Implementation Uncertainty, and Embedded Divestment Options," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 417-441, September.
    8. Sara B. Moeller & Frederik P. Schlingemann & René M. Stulz, 2005. "Wealth Destruction on a Massive Scale? A Study of Acquiring-Firm Returns in the Recent Merger Wave," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 757-782, April.
    9. Ahern, Kenneth R., 2012. "Bargaining power and industry dependence in mergers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 530-550.
    10. Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2008. "Optimal and strategic timing of mergers and acquisitions motivated by synergies and risk diversification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1701-1720, May.
    11. Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
    12. Gao, Ning, 2011. "The adverse selection effect of corporate cash reserve: Evidence from acquisitions solely financed by stock," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 789-808, September.
    13. Kathleen Fuller & Jeffry Netter & Mike Stegemoller, 2002. "What Do Returns to Acquiring Firms Tell Us? Evidence from Firms That Make Many Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1763-1793, August.
    14. Gregor Andrade & Mark Mitchell & Erik Stafford, 2001. "New Evidence and Perspectives on Mergers," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 103-120, Spring.
    15. Moeller, Sara B. & Schlingemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Firm size and the gains from acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 201-228, August.
    16. Kathryn Barraclough & David T. Robinson & Tom Smith & Robert E. Whaley, 2013. "Using Option Prices to Infer Overpayments and Synergies in M&A Transactions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 695-722.
    17. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2004. "The timing and terms of mergers motivated by economies of scale," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 41-62, April.
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