IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v126y2017icp77-90.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Be patient when measuring hyperbolic discounting: Stationarity, time consistency and time invariance in a field experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Janssens, Wendy
  • Kramer, Berber
  • Swart, Lisette

Abstract

Hyperbolic discounting is one potential reason why savings remain low among the poor. Most evidence of hyperbolic discounting is based on violations of either stationarity or time consistency. Stationarity is violated when intertemporal choices differ for trade-offs in the near versus the more distant future. Time consistency is violated if the optimal allocation for specific dates changes over time. Both types of choice reversals may however also result from time-varying discount rates. Hyperbolic discounting is an unambiguous explanation for choice reversals only if the same individuals violate both stationarity and time consistency. Our field experiment in Nigeria examines the extent to which this is the case. The experiment measured both stationarity and time consistency for the same participants. Violations of the two rarely coincide, especially among more liquidity-constrained participants. Thus, in a context of liquidity constraints, eliciting only one type of choice reversal is insufficient to identify hyperbolic discounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber & Swart, Lisette, 2017. "Be patient when measuring hyperbolic discounting: Stationarity, time consistency and time invariance in a field experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 77-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:126:y:2017:i:c:p:77-90
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.12.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387816301183
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.12.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard H. Thaler & Shlomo Benartzi, 2004. "Save More Tomorrow (TM): Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 164-187, February.
    2. Andersen, Steffen & Harrison, Glenn W. & Lau, Morten I. & Rutström, E. Elisabet, 2014. "Discounting behavior: A reconsideration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-33.
    3. Jose Apesteguia & Miguel A. Ballester, 2018. "Monotone Stochastic Choice Models: The Case of Risk and Time Preferences," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(1), pages 74-106.
    4. Charles Sprenger, 2015. "Judging Experimental Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 280-285, May.
    5. Xavier Giné & Jessica Goldberg & Dan Silverman & Dean Yang, 2018. "Revising Commitments: Field Evidence on the Adjustment of Prior Choices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 159-188, February.
    6. Ned Augenblick & Muriel Niederle & Charles Sprenger, 2015. "Editor's Choice Working over Time: Dynamic Inconsistency in Real Effort Tasks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1067-1115.
    7. Krupka, Erin L. & Stephens, Melvin, 2013. "The stability of measured time preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 11-19.
    8. Hoel, Jessica B. & Schwab, Benjamin & Hoddinott, John, 2016. "Self-control exertion and the expression of time preference: Experimental results from Ethiopia," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 136-146.
    9. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
    10. Glenn Harrison & Morten Lau & Elisabet Rutstrom, 2005. "Dynamic consistency in denmark: A longitudinal field experiment," Artefactual Field Experiments 00060, The Field Experiments Website.
    11. Nava Ashraf & Dean Karlan & Wesley Yin, 2006. "Tying Odysseus to the Mast: Evidence From a Commitment Savings Product in the Philippines," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 635-672.
    12. Noor, Jawwad, 2009. "Hyperbolic discounting and the standard model: Eliciting discount functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 2077-2083, September.
    13. repec:ubc:pmicro:yoram_halevy-2012-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. James Andreoni & Michael A. Kuhn & Charles Sprenger, 2013. "On Measuring Time Preferences," NBER Working Papers 19392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Glenn W. Harrison & Morten I. Lau & Melonie B. Williams, 2002. "Estimating Individual Discount Rates in Denmark: A Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1606-1617, December.
    16. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2012. "Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3357-3376, December.
    17. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
    18. Gharad Bryan & Dean Karlan & Scott Nelson, 2010. "Commitment Devices," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 671-698, September.
    19. James Andreoni & Charles Sprenger, 2012. "Estimating Time Preferences from Convex Budgets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3333-3356, December.
    20. Pascaline Dupas & Jonathan Robinson, 2013. "Why Don't the Poor Save More? Evidence from Health Savings Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1138-1171, June.
    21. Maribeth Coller & Melonie Williams, 1999. "Eliciting Individual Discount Rates," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 2(2), pages 107-127, December.
    22. Anujit Chakraborty & Evan M. Calford & Guidon Fenig & Yoram Halevy, 2017. "External and internal consistency of choices made in convex time budgets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(3), pages 687-706, September.
    23. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    24. Robin Cubitt & Daniel Read, 2007. "Can intertemporal choice experiments elicit time preferences for consumption?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(4), pages 369-389, December.
    25. Stephan Meier & Charles D. Sprenger, 2015. "Temporal Stability of Time Preferences," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 273-286, May.
    26. Leandro S. Carvalho & Stephan Meier & Stephanie W. Wang, 2016. "Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 260-284, February.
    27. Yoram Halevy, 2015. "Time Consistency: Stationarity and Time Invariance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 335-352, January.
    28. Andreoni, James & Kuhn, Michael A. & Sprenger, Charles, 2015. "Measuring time preferences: A comparison of experimental methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 451-464.
    29. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    30. Serdar Sayman & Ayse Öncüler, 2009. "An Investigation of Time Inconsistency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 470-482, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Uttara Balakrishnan & Johannes Haushofer & Pamela Jakiela, 2020. "How soon is now? Evidence of present bias from convex time budget experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 294-321, June.
    2. Aycinena, Diego & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Rentschler, Lucas & Sprenger, Charles, 2022. "Intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 484-500.
    3. James Andreoni & Christina Gravert & Michael A. Kuhn & Silvia Saccardo & Yang Yang, 2018. "Arbitrage Or Narrow Bracketing? On Using Money to Measure Intertemporal Preferences," NBER Working Papers 25232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rachel Cassidy, 2018. "Are the poor so present-biased?," IFS Working Papers W18/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Kramer, Berber & Kunst, David, 2017. "Intertemporal choice and income regularity: Non-fungibility in a lab-in-the-field experiment," IFPRI discussion papers 1646, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Stephen L. Cheung & Agnieszka Tymula & Xueting Wang, 2022. "Present bias for monetary and dietary rewards," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1202-1233, September.
    7. Geng, Xin & Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber, 2018. "Liquid milk: Cash Constraints and Recurring Savings among Dairy Farmers in Kenya," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273823, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky & Verónica Frisancho & Jonathan Karver & Andrew Powell & Diego Margot & Ancor Suárez-Alemán & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Matías Marzani & Solange Berstein & Marian, 2016. "Saving for Development: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Save More and Better," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 94597 edited by Eduardo A. Cavallo & Tomás Serebrisky, February.
    9. Anujit Chakraborty & Evan M. Calford & Guidon Fenig & Yoram Halevy, 2017. "External and internal consistency of choices made in convex time budgets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(3), pages 687-706, September.
    10. Antonia Grohmann & Tabea Lakemann & Helke Seitz, 2020. "Savings Goal Calendars as Soft Commitment Devices: Evidence from Small Business Owners in Uganda," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1919, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Sergio Da Silva & Dinorá De Faveri & Ana Correa & Raul Matsushita, 2017. "High-income consumers may be less hyperbolic when discounting the future," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1421-1434.
    12. Geng, Xin & Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber, 2023. "Liquid milk: Savings, insurance and side-selling in cooperatives," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    13. Shigeta, Yuki, 2022. "Quasi-hyperbolic discounting under recursive utility and consumption–investment decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    14. Shilpa Aggarwal & Rebecca Dizon-Ross & Ariel D. Zucker, 2020. "Incentivizing Behavioral Change: The Role of Time Preferences," NBER Working Papers 27079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Aurélien Baillon & Owen O'Donnell & Stella Quimbo & Kim van Wilgenburg, 2022. "Do time preferences explain low health insurance take‐up?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 951-983, December.
    16. Rachel Cassidy, 2018. "Are the poor so present-biased?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2018-19, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    17. Geng, Xin & Janssens, Wendy & Kramer, Berber N., 2017. "Liquid milk: Cash constraints and day-to-day intertemporal choice in financial diaries," IFPRI discussion papers 1602, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Serebrisky, Tomás & Frisancho, Verónica & Karver, Jonathan & Powell, Andrew & Margot, Diego & Suárez-Alemán, Ancor & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Marzani, Matías & Berstein, Solang, 2016. "Saving for Development: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Save More and Better," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 7677, March.
    19. Zoltán Schepp & József Ulbert & Ákos Tóth-Pajor, 2020. "The Effect of Investor Short-Termism on the Capital Demand of European Listed Firms," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 88-106.
    20. Cassidy, Rachel & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2020. "Banker my neighbour: Matching and financial intermediation in savings groups," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    21. Dizon-Ross, Rebecca & Aggarwal, Shilpa & Zucker, Ariel, 2020. "Incentivizing Behavioral Change: The Role of Time Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 14751, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ubfal, Diego, 2016. "How general are time preferences? Eliciting good-specific discount rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 150-170.
    2. Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch, 2015. "Time Preferences and Bargaining," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2015/568, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    3. Aycinena, Diego & Blazsek, Szabolcs & Rentschler, Lucas & Sprenger, Charles, 2022. "Intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 484-500.
    4. Preuss, Malte, 2021. "Intra-individual stability of two survey measures on forward-looking attitude," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 201-227.
    5. James Andreoni & Christina Gravert & Michael A. Kuhn & Silvia Saccardo & Yang Yang, 2018. "Arbitrage Or Narrow Bracketing? On Using Money to Measure Intertemporal Preferences," NBER Working Papers 25232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mark Dean & Anja Sautmann, 2021. "Credit Constraints and the Measurement of Time Preferences," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 119-135, March.
    7. Uttara Balakrishnan & Johannes Haushofer & Pamela Jakiela, 2020. "How soon is now? Evidence of present bias from convex time budget experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(2), pages 294-321, June.
    8. Stephen L. Cheung & Agnieszka Tymula & Xueting Wang, 2022. "Present bias for monetary and dietary rewards," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(4), pages 1202-1233, September.
    9. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    10. Drouhin, Nicolas, 2020. "Non-stationary additive utility and time consistency," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Melanie Lührmann & Marta Serra-Garcia & Joachim Winter, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Education on Adolescents' Intertemporal Choices," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 309-332, August.
    12. Carlsson, Fredrik & Yang, Xiaojun, 2013. "Intertemporal Choice Shifts in Households: Do they occur and are they good?," Working Papers in Economics 569, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Meyer, Andrew G., 2015. "The impacts of elicitation mechanism and reward size on estimated rates of time preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 132-148.
    14. Laurent Denant-Boemont & Enrico Diecidue & Olivier l’Haridon, 2017. "Patience and time consistency in collective decisions," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 181-208, March.
    15. James Andreoni & Michael Callen & Karrar Hussain & Muhammad Yasir Khan & Charles Sprenger, 2023. "Using Preference Estimates to Customize Incentives: An Application to Polio Vaccination Drives in Pakistan," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1428-1477.
    16. Andrej Gill & Florian Hett & Johannes Tischer, 2022. "Time Inconsistency and Overdraft Use: Evidence from Transaction Data and Behavioral Measurement Experiments," Working Papers 2205, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    17. David Bradford & Charles Courtemanche & Garth Heutel & Patrick McAlvanah & Christopher Ruhm, 2017. "Time preferences and consumer behavior," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 119-145, December.
    18. Lemoine, Derek, 2018. "Age-induced acceleration of time: Implications for intertemporal choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 143-152.
    19. Dániel Horn & Hubert János Kiss, 2020. "Time preferences and their life outcome correlates: Evidence from a representative survey," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-26, July.
    20. Andreoni, James & Kuhn, Michael A. & Sprenger, Charles, 2015. "Measuring time preferences: A comparison of experimental methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 451-464.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time preferences; Hyperbolic discounting; Temporal stability; Liquidity constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:126:y:2017:i:c:p:77-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.