IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v94y2025ipbs1043951x25002287.html

Flood disasters, firm total factor productivity and adaptation behaviors

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Peiting
  • Yao, Xin

Abstract

Climate change has caused increasingly intense and frequent flooding, resulting in substantial economic loss worldwide in recent years. This study examines the impact of flood disasters on manufacturing firm productivity in China. Using the matched geographic accurate data with firm location and inundated areas, we find that flood disasters result in 9.3 % significant loss on firm TFP, particularly for small-size firms, non-state-owned firms, coastland firms and specific sector firms. Scale effect and innovation effect contribute to these outcomes. Moreover, government intervention can significantly influence firms' adaptation behaviors in the context of floods. All of the estimation results provide preparedness and adaptation support for both private and public sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Peiting & Yao, Xin, 2025. "Flood disasters, firm total factor productivity and adaptation behaviors," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:94:y:2025:i:pb:s1043951x25002287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102570
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X25002287
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102570?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leah Platt Boustan & Matthew E. Kahn & Paul W. Rhode, 2012. "Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 238-244, May.
    2. Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2021. "Natural disasters, firm survival, and growth: Evidence from the Ise Bay Typhoon, Japan," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(5), pages 944-970, November.
    3. Juanma Castro-Vincenzi & Gaurav Khanna & Nicolas Morales & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2024. "Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate Risk," Working Paper 24-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    4. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    5. Jichong Han & Zhao Zhang & Jialu Xu & Yi Chen & Jonas Jägermeyr & Juan Cao & Yuchuan Luo & Fei Cheng & Huimin Zhuang & Huaqing Wu & Qinghang Mei & Jie Song & Fulu Tao, 2024. "Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 994-1006, August.
    6. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    8. Mihaela Craioveanu & Dek Terrell, 2016. "The Impact of Storms on Firm Survival: A Bayesian Spatial Econometric Model for Firm Survival," Advances in Econometrics, in: Spatial Econometrics: Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables, volume 37, pages 81-118, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Carolyn Kousky & Erzo Luttmer & Richard Zeckhauser, 2006. "Private investment and government protection," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 73-100, September.
    10. Bas, Maria & Paunov, Caroline, 2025. "Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    11. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Nov), pages 2-20.
    12. Chad Syverson, 2011. "What Determines Productivity?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 326-365, June.
    13. Manasi Deshpande & Yue Li, 2019. "Who Is Screened Out? Application Costs and the Targeting of Disability Programs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 213-248, November.
    14. Chen, Xiaodong & Lin, Yatang & Zhu, Pengyu, 2025. "The impact of rainfall on productivity: Implications for Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 389-411.
    15. Jia, Ruixue & , & Xie, Victoria, 2022. "Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 17462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "How do Firms Respond to Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202011250800001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Stefano Clò & Francesco David & Samuele Segoni, 2024. "The impact of hydrogeological events on firms: evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Winston P. Hovekamp & Katherine R. H. Wagner, 2023. "Efficient Adaptation to Flood Risk," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 304-309, May.
    19. Agustín Indaco & Francesc Ortega & Süleyman Taṣpınar, 2021. "Hurricanes, flood risk and the economic adaptation of businesses," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 557-591.
    20. Meltzer, Rachel & Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Li, Xiaodi, 2021. "Localized commercial effects from natural disasters: The case of Hurricane Sandy and New York City," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    21. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    22. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    23. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Strobl, Eric & Sun, Puyang, 2015. "The local impact of typhoons on economic activity in China: A view from outer space," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-66.
    24. Stephane Hallegatte & Julie Rozenberg, 2017. "Climate change through a poverty lens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 250-256, April.
    25. E. Somanathan & Rohini Somanathan & Anant Sudarshan & Meenu Tewari, 2021. "The Impact of Temperature on Productivity and Labor Supply: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1797-1827.
    26. Ishan B. Nath & Valerie A. Ramey & Peter J. Klenow, 2024. "How Much Will Global Warming Cool Global Growth?," NBER Working Papers 32761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Huang, Zenghe & Dong, Xiaofang, 2025. "When the levee breaks: The impact of floods on educational outcomes in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    28. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2012. "Creative accounting or creative destruction? Firm-level productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 339-351.
    29. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    30. Guojun He & Shaoda Wang & Bing Zhang, 2020. "Watering Down Environmental Regulation in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2135-2185.
    31. Sahil Gandhi & Matthew E. Kahn & Rajat Kochhar & Somik Lall & Vaidehi Tandel, 2022. "Adapting to Flood Risk: Evidence from a Panel of Global Cities," NBER Working Papers 30137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Emek Basker & Javier Miranda, 2018. "Taken by storm: business financing and survival in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1285-1313.
    33. Julien Boulange & Naota Hanasaki & Dai Yamazaki & Yadu Pokhrel, 2021. "Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    34. Richard Hornbeck & Suresh Naidu, 2014. "When the Levee Breaks: Black Migration and Economic Development in the American South," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 963-990, March.
    35. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    36. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated Agricultural Sensitivity and Adaptability to Rising Temperatures across Regions and Sectors in China," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335522, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    37. repec:fip:fedrwp:98029 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Gabriele Rovigatti & Vincenzo Mollisi, 2018. "Theory and practice of total-factor productivity estimation: The control function approach using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(3), pages 618-662, September.
    39. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Peng, Yu-Lu & Ma, Chao-Qun & Shen, Bo, 2017. "Can environmental innovation facilitate carbon emissions reduction? Evidence from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 18-28.
    40. Pelli, Martino & Tschopp, Jeanne & Bezmaternykh, Natalia & Eklou, Kodjovi M., 2023. "In the eye of the storm: Firms and capital destruction in India," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    41. Meredith Fowlie & Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur, 2012. "What Do Emissions Markets Deliver and to Whom? Evidence from Southern California's NOx Trading Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 965-993, April.
    42. Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
    43. Boustan, Leah Platt & Kahn, Matthew E. & Rhode, Paul W. & Yanguas, Maria Lucia, 2020. "The effect of natural disasters on economic activity in US counties: A century of data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    44. Jue Du & Lingling Hou & Yuanyuan Zhao & Zhexi Zhang, 2025. "Impacts of Sandstorms on Wheat Yield in Northern China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 107(4), pages 1087-1116, August.
    45. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    46. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    48. Chen, Ying & Wu, Wenjie & Yun, Yanwen, 2025. "The geography of pollution regulation and productivity," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    49. Agarwal, Sumit & Qin, Yu & Sing, Tien Foo & Zhan, Changwei, 2025. "Sea level rise risks, adaptation strategies, and real estate prices in Singapore," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    50. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    51. Clò, Stefano & David, Francesco & Segoni, Samuele, 2024. "The impact of hydrogeological events on firms: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    52. Li, Pei & Lu, Yi & Wang, Jin, 2016. "Does flattening government improve economic performance? Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 18-37.
    53. Sandra Sydnor & Linda Niehm & Yoon Lee & Maria Marshall & Holly Schrank, 2017. "Analysis of post-disaster damage and disruptive impacts on the operating status of small businesses after Hurricane Katrina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1637-1663, February.
    54. Winston P. Hovekamp & Katherine R. H. Wagner, 2023. "Efficient Adaptation to Flood Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 10243, CESifo.
    55. Jun Rentschler & Melda Salhab & Bramka Arga Jafino, 2022. "Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    56. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    57. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    58. Gregory Lane, 2024. "Adapting to Climate Risk With Guaranteed Credit: Evidence From Bangladesh," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(2), pages 355-386, March.
    59. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Liu, Yi & Strobl, Eric & Tong, Meng, 2019. "Estimating the direct and indirect impact of typhoons on plant performance: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Yu & Yang, Yichen & Zhang, Ning, 2026. "Flood shocks, heterogeneous risk exposure, and housing market dynamics in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Shao, Meiqi & Li, Jieyu & Zhang, Changzheng & Zhang, Xiaomin, 2025. "Impact of extreme weather events on manufacturing productivity: Evidence from typhoon shocks in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Flavio de Carolis & Vinzenz Peters, 2025. "European SMEs, Corporate Finance and Economic Resilience to Floods," Working Papers 832, DNB.
    4. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Bas, Maria & Paunov, Caroline, 2025. "Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Xiaojun Yu & Russell Smyth & Yao Yao & Quanda Zhang, 2024. "Water stress and industrial firm productivity: Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 2024-20, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Zhang, Renjie & Zhu, Guiyi, 2024. "Green public procurement and firms' pollution emissions: Does demand-side environmental policy matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1958-1978.
    8. Casagrande, Dieison & Hidalgo, Álvaro & Feistel, Paulo, 2024. "Exports, productivity and capital intensity: Evidence for Brazilian firms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 279-301.
    9. Dong, Zhanyu & Cai, Jiayi & Li, Xuchao & Luan, Mengna, 2025. "Firm-level impacts and recovery dynamics following a public health crisis: Lessons from China’s SARS experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Li, Daiyue & Jin, Yanhong & Cheng, Mingwang, 2024. "Unleashing the power of industrial robotics on firm productivity: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 500-520.
    11. Alessandro Bellocchi & Chiara Lodi & Giovanni Marin & Giuseppe Travaglini & Matteo Zavalloni, 2025. "Floods, Public Budgets and Fiscal Resilience: Evidence from Italian Municipalities," SEEDS Working Papers 1625, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Dec 2025.
    12. Li, Pei & Liu, Kaihao & Lu, Yi & Peng, Lu, 2025. "Organizing regulatory structure and local air quality: Evidence from the environmental vertical management reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-164.
    13. Chen, Jidong & Shi, Xinzheng & Zhang, Ming-ang & Zhang, Sihan, 2024. "Centralization of environmental administration and air pollution: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Fang, Xubing & Liu, Maotao, 2024. "Regional judicial capacity and corporate total factor productivity: Evidence from the establishment of circuit courts," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 465-489.
    15. Zou, Tao & Li, Shasha & Dai, Yixin, 2025. "Does the pilot free trade zone promote “quality improvement and quantity increase” of the city’s export trade?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1323-1341.
    16. Zhang, Peng & Deschenes, Olivier & Meng, Kyle & Zhang, Junjie, 2018. "Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Zhang, Jingxue & Yu, Shiwei & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Su, Bin & Sun, Ya-Fang, 2025. "How do renewable energy policies affect energy green development? Evidence from Chinese listed energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    18. Davide Antonioli & Elisa Chioatto & Ginevra Coletti & Asia Guerreschi & Susanna Mancinelli & Massimiliano Mazzanti & Giuseppe Rocco & Emy Zecca, 2025. "Understanding Sustainability and Innovation: A Collection of Survey Evidence from Italian Contexts," SEEDS Working Papers 1725, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Dec 2025.
    19. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    20. Lennon, Conor & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Teltser, Keith, 2025. "Ridesharing and substance use disorder treatment," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:94:y:2025:i:pb:s1043951x25002287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.