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Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Boulange

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Naota Hanasaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • Dai Yamazaki

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Yadu Pokhrel

    (Michigan State University)

Abstract

Globally, flood risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. Here, we quantify the role of dams in flood mitigation, previously unaccounted for in global flood studies, by simulating the floodplain dynamics and flow regulation by dams. We show that, ignoring flow regulation by dams, the average number of people exposed to flooding below dams amount to 9.1 and 15.3 million per year, by the end of the 21st century (holding population constant), for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0, respectively. Accounting for dams reduces the number of people exposed to floods by 20.6 and 12.9% (for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). While environmental problems caused by dams warrant further investigations, our results indicate that consideration of dams significantly affect the estimation of future population exposure to flood, emphasizing the need to integrate them in model-based impact analysis of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Boulange & Naota Hanasaki & Dai Yamazaki & Yadu Pokhrel, 2021. "Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-20704-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20704-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Dipsikha Devi & Anupal Baruah & Arup Kumar Sarma, 2022. "Characterization of dam-impacted flood hydrograph and its degree of severity as a potential hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 1989-2011, July.
    4. Chen, Zhonglu & Zhang, Li & Weng, Chen, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect Chinese stock market volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 369-381.
    5. Sundar Ponnusamy, 2022. "Rainfall shocks, child mortality, and water infrastructure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1317-1338, July.
    6. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.

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