IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i9p4046-d1646590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hierarchical Temporal-Scale Framework for Real-Time Streamflow Prediction in Reservoir-Regulated Basins

Author

Listed:
  • Jiaxuan Chang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Xuefeng Sang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Junlin Qu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yangwen Jia

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Lin Wang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

  • Haokai Ding

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

Reservoir construction has profoundly altered natural runoff evolution in river basins. Dynamic conflicts among multi-objective operational strategies—such as flood control, water supply, and ecological compensation—across varying temporal scales exacerbate uncertainties in runoff prediction, primarily due to the complex interplay between hydrological rhythm variations and anthropogenic regulation. To address these challenges, this study proposes a hierarchical multi-scale coupling framework. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are employed to extract implicit operational patterns from long-term reservoir records at monthly and weekly scales, while short-term decision dynamics are captured through deviations from these established long-term rules. The proposed framework is validated in the Dongjiang River Basin, a key water source for the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area. Compared to single-scale models, the hierarchical approach improves prediction accuracy with an average Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) increase of 9.4% and reductions in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 13.2% and 9.6%, respectively. When coupled with a hydrological model, the framework enhances simulation accuracy in reservoir-regulated basins by up to 37.8%. By integrating multi-source decision variables, the framework captures the feedback mechanisms between natural flow variability and human interventions across temporal scales, providing a transferable strategy to reconcile operational conflicts with ecological flow requirements. Its flexibility supports optimized water allocation in regulated river basins, contributing to enhanced water security for downstream urban agglomerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaxuan Chang & Xuefeng Sang & Junlin Qu & Yangwen Jia & Lin Wang & Haokai Ding, 2025. "Hierarchical Temporal-Scale Framework for Real-Time Streamflow Prediction in Reservoir-Regulated Basins," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-22, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4046-:d:1646590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/4046/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/9/4046/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang Zheng & Xuefeng Sang & Zhiwu Liu & Siqi Zhang & Pan Liu, 2022. "Water Allocation Management Under Scarcity: a Bankruptcy Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2891-2912, July.
    2. Ding, Ziyu & Fang, Guohua & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Huang, Xianfeng & Lei, Xiaohui & Tian, Yu & Quan, Jin, 2018. "A novel operation chart for cascade hydropower system to alleviate ecological degradation in hydrological extremes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 10-22.
    3. Julien Boulange & Naota Hanasaki & Dai Yamazaki & Yadu Pokhrel, 2021. "Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Qi & Fan, Yawen, 2024. "Hedging downside risk in agricultural commodities: A novel nonparametric kernel method," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Dan Wang & Shuanghu Zhang & Guoli Wang & Yin Liu & Hao Wang & Jingjing Gu, 2022. "Reservoir Regulation for Ecological Protection and Remediation: A Case Study of the Irtysh River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Dinesh Roulo & Subbarao Pichuka, 2024. "Assessing the effects of extreme rainfall patterns and their impact on dam safety: a case study on Indian dam failures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(14), pages 12967-12987, November.
    4. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Li Tang & Xiaohui Sun & Shuyuan Xu, 2025. "Enhancing Reservoir Operational Modelling with Satellite Altimetry-Derived Water Level Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(7), pages 3467-3482, May.
    6. Pan Liu & Yang Zheng & Yukun Yang & Hao Wang & Xuefeng Sang & Siqi Zhang, 2025. "Exploration of Equity Cooperation Concepts in Water Resource Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(1), pages 473-502, January.
    7. Weibin Zhang & Xiaochun Zha & Jiaxing Li & Wei Liang & Yugai Ma & Dongmei Fan & Sha Li, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in the Headwater of Yellow River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4715-4732, October.
    8. Mohammad Ali Tolouei Virani & Reza Javidi Sabbaghian & Bardia Roghani & Ehsan Bahrami Jovein & Mohammad Fereshtehpour, 2025. "Reallocating Shared Groundwater Resources Using a Participatory Two- level Weighted Bankruptcy Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(6), pages 2567-2589, April.
    9. Naiyi Liu & Yunhe Wu & Wenbo Li & Zihan Liu, 2025. "Temporal Trends in Biodiversity Intactness Vary with Baseline Levels Across Regions and Climates," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Julien Boulange & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Masahiro Tanoue & Toshinori Yamada, 2023. "Quantitative evaluation of flood damage methodologies under a portfolio of adaptation scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 1855-1879, September.
    11. Yi Liu & Zhiqiang Jiang & Zhongkai Feng & Yuyun Chen & Hairong Zhang & Ping Chen, 2019. "Optimization of Energy Storage Operation Chart of Cascade Reservoirs with Multi-Year Regulating Reservoir," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Md. Kamruzzaman & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Md. Shakil Ahmed & Md. Enamul Kabir & Quamrul Hasan Mazumder & M. Sayedur Rahman & Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan, 2018. "Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 89-108, February.
    13. Xu, Xin & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei & Jia, Nanfei & Qi, Yajie, 2024. "Measurement of daily climate physical risks and climate transition risks faced by China's energy sector stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 625-640.
    14. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Shuhua Dong & Umar Waqas Liaqat & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Yuxiang Hu & Qaisar Saddique, 2016. "Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4839-4859, October.
    15. Wenlin Yuan & Xueyan Yu & Chengguo Su & Denghua Yan & Zening Wu, 2020. "A Multi-Timescale Integrated Operation Model for Balancing Power Generation, Ecology, and Water Supply of Reservoir Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Schmitt, Rafael Jan Pablo & Rosa, Lorenzo, 2024. "Dams for hydropower and irrigation: Trends, challenges, and alternatives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    18. Xiang Zhang & Liangkun Deng & Bi Wu & Shichun Gao & Yi Xiao, 2022. "Low-Impact Optimal Operation of a Cascade Sluice-Reservoir System for Water-Society-Ecology Trade-Offs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6131-6148, December.
    19. Jiahong Li & Xiaohui Lei & Yu Qiao & Aiqing Kang & Peiru Yan, 2020. "The Water Status in China and an Adaptive Governance Frame for Water Management," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Duarte, Gabriela T. & Schuster, Richard & Edwards, Marc & Dallaire, Camille O. & Vári, Ágnes & Mitchell, Matthew G.E., 2024. "Flood prevention benefits provided by Canadian natural ecosystems," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:9:p:4046-:d:1646590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.