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Do children's time preferences predict future school outcomes?

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Listed:
  • Wu, Binglan
  • Feng, Shuaizhang
  • Zhang, Yijing
  • Han, Yujie

Abstract

This paper uses a large longitudinal dataset to study the predictive power of children's time preferences on their future school outcomes, accounting simultaneously for cognitive (IQ) and noncognitive skills (the Big Five). We show that controlling for children's IQ and the Big Five substantially reduces the association between time preferences and later outcomes. Based on Shapley-Owen decomposition results, time preferences only have negligible predictive power over both cognitive and behavioral outcomes. In contrast, conscientiousness contributes the most in predicting behavioral outcomes, while IQ and conscientiousness are the most significant predictors of cognitive outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Binglan & Feng, Shuaizhang & Zhang, Yijing & Han, Yujie, 2025. "Do children's time preferences predict future school outcomes?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:93:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x25001488
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102490
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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

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