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China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective

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  • Xu, Jianguo
  • Zhang, Xun

Abstract

We analyze China's sovereign debt by constructing balance sheets for China's government and public sector. We find that China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than that of most large developed economies. We also find the debt-to-asset ratio of China's government and public sector significantly lower than its own historical height (1998–2002). Local government debt is mainly to finance infrastructure investments. Local government debt risk is amplified by two mismatches. The first is the income-expenditure mismatch between central and local governments. The second is the maturity mismatch of short-term debt and long-term infrastructure investments. The maturity mismatch may cause short-term repayment difficulties.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Jianguo & Zhang, Xun, 2014. "China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 55-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:31:y:2014:i:c:p:55-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.08.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongding Yu & Ting Lu, 2016. "China's Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Dynamics," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Cao, Hongjie & Li, Meina & Lu, Yuqi & Xu, Yang, 2022. "The impact of strengthening government auditing supervision on fiscal sustainability: Evidence from China's auditing vertical management reform," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Mao, Wenfeng & Cai, Siyuan & Lu, Jun & Yang, Haotian, 2023. "What triggered China's urban debt risk? Snowball effect under the growth target constraint," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Xiang Xu & Alice Siqi Han, 2018. "Will China Collapse: A Review, Assessment And Outlook," Economics Working Papers 18104, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    5. Yifu Yang & Sheng Zhang & Nannan Zhang & Zuhui Wen & Qihao Zhang & Meng Xu & Yingfan Zhang & Muchuan Niu, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship between China’s Economic Cycle, Government Debt, and Economic Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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