IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v309y2022ics0306261921014975.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertain Multi-Criteria analysis of offshore wind farms projects investments – Case study of the Polish Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea

Author

Listed:
  • Ziemba, Paweł

Abstract

Investments in offshore wind farms can be an effective development stimulus for an economy recovering from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, an important issue is a multi-criteria analysis of planned investments in offshore wind farms. Such an analysis allows to identify the most important projects from the perspective of sustainable development. Taking into account the uncertainties and risks related to wind energy, and additionally taking into account the uncertainty of ex-ante evaluation, such studies need to analyse the uncertainty as widely as possible. The article presents a comprehensive methodological approach that allows for the maximum capture of uncertainties and risks related to energy investment projects in the area of wind farms. This approach involves using the fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (FMCDA) method, sensitivity analysis and robustness analysis based on the Monte-Carlo simulations. Additionally, the uncertainty related to the applied methodology was taken into account and the same problem was solved by using different FMCDA methods. Based on the applied approach, a case study was conducted and a ranking of offshore wind farms projects in Poland was created. It was found that the most promising project is Bałtyk II, followed by Bałtyk I, both projects being carried out by the Polenergia/Equinor consortium. However, if the preference model is not known, the Bałtyk I project has the greatest chance of taking the leasing place in the ranking (31.7%), ahead of the following projects: Baltic Power (20.4%) owned by PKN Orlen and Bałtyk III (18.6%) which is also owned by Polenergia/Equinor.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziemba, Paweł, 2022. "Uncertain Multi-Criteria analysis of offshore wind farms projects investments – Case study of the Polish Economic Zone of the Baltic Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:309:y:2022:i:c:s0306261921014975
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921014975
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118232?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Yunna & Xu, Chuanbo & Ke, Yiming & Chen, Kaifeng & Sun, Xiaokun, 2018. "An intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria framework for large-scale rooftop PV project portfolio selection: Case study in Zhejiang, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 295-309.
    2. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    3. Wu, Yunna & Zhang, Ting & Gao, Rui & Wu, Chenghao, 2021. "Portfolio planning of renewable energy with energy storage technologies for different applications from electricity grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    4. Chou, Shuo-Yan & Chang, Yao-Hui & Shen, Chun-Ying, 2008. "A fuzzy simple additive weighting system under group decision-making for facility location selection with objective/subjective attributes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 132-145, August.
    5. Dedecca, João Gorenstein & Hakvoort, Rudi A. & Ortt, J. Roland, 2016. "Market strategies for offshore wind in Europe: A development and diffusion perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 286-296.
    6. Elkadeem, M.R. & Younes, Ali & Sharshir, Swellam W. & Campana, Pietro Elia & Wang, Shaorong, 2021. "Sustainable siting and design optimization of hybrid renewable energy system: A geospatial multi-criteria analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    7. Xiao, Sinan & Praditia, Timothy & Oladyshkin, Sergey & Nowak, Wolfgang, 2021. "Global sensitivity analysis of a CaO/Ca(OH)2 thermochemical energy storage model for parametric effect analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    8. Ireneusz Miciuła & Henryk Wojtaszek & Marek Bazan & Tomasz Janiczek & Bogdan Włodarczyk & Judyta Kabus & Radomir Kana, 2020. "Management of the Energy Mix and Emissivity of Individual Economies in the European Union as a Challenge of the Modern World Climate," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-24, October.
    9. Mavrotas, George & Figueira, José Rui & Siskos, Eleftherios, 2015. "Robustness analysis methodology for multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems and application to project selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 142-155.
    10. Jarosław Brodny & Magdalena Tutak & Saqib Ahmad Saki, 2020. "Forecasting the Structure of Energy Production from Renewable Energy Sources and Biofuels in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-31, May.
    11. Deveci, Muhammet & Cali, Umit & Kucuksari, Sadik & Erdogan, Nuh, 2020. "Interval type-2 fuzzy sets based multi-criteria decision-making model for offshore wind farm development in Ireland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Józef Paska & Tomasz Surma & Paweł Terlikowski & Krzysztof Zagrajek, 2020. "Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Sources in Poland as a Part of Commitment to the Polish and EU Energy Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-31, August.
    13. Chen, Chen-Tung & Lin, Ching-Torng & Huang, Sue-Fn, 2006. "A fuzzy approach for supplier evaluation and selection in supply chain management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 289-301, August.
    14. Cunden, Tyagaraja S.M. & Doorga, Jay & Lollchund, Michel R. & Rughooputh, Soonil D.D.V., 2020. "Multi-level constraints wind farms siting for a complex terrain in a tropical region using MCDM approach coupled with GIS," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    15. Paweł Ziemba, 2021. "Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Saidur, R. & Rahim, N.A. & Islam, M.R. & Solangi, K.H., 2011. "Environmental impact of wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2423-2430, June.
    17. Katarzyna Chudy-Laskowska & Tomasz Pisula & Mirosław Liana & László Vasa, 2020. "Taxonomic Analysis of the Diversity in the Level of Wind Energy Development in European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Gao, Jianwei & Guo, Fengjia & Ma, Zeyang & Huang, Xin & Li, Xiangzhen, 2020. "Multi-criteria group decision-making framework for offshore wind farm site selection based on the intuitionistic linguistic aggregation operators," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    19. Paweł Ziemba, 2019. "Towards Strong Sustainability Management—A Generalized PROSA Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-29, March.
    20. Delenne, C. & Cappelaere, B. & Guinot, V., 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 171-183.
    21. Gatzert, Nadine & Kosub, Thomas, 2016. "Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 982-998.
    22. Dimitra G. Vagiona & Manos Kamilakis, 2018. "Sustainable Site Selection for Offshore Wind Farms in the South Aegean—Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    23. Alberto Pliego Marugán & Fausto Pedro García Márquez & Jesús María Pinar Pérez, 2016. "Optimal Maintenance Management of Offshore Wind Farms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, January.
    24. Lledó, Ll. & Torralba, V. & Soret, A. & Ramon, J. & Doblas-Reyes, F.J., 2019. "Seasonal forecasts of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 91-100.
    25. Naji, Sareh & Aye, Lu & Noguchi, Masa, 2021. "Sensitivity analysis on energy performance, thermal and visual discomfort of a prefabricated house in six climate zones in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    26. Wu, Yunna & Liao, Mingjuan & Hu, Mengyao & Lin, Jiawei & Zhou, Jianli & Zhang, Buyuan & Xu, Chuanbo, 2020. "A decision framework of low-speed wind farm projects in hilly areas based on DEMATEL-entropy-TODIM method from the sustainability perspective: A case in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    27. Sajid Ali & Sang-Moon Lee & Choon-Man Jang, 2017. "Determination of the Most Optimal On-Shore Wind Farm Site Location Using a GIS-MCDM Methodology: Evaluating the Case of South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    28. Dhiman, Harsh S. & Deb, Dipankar, 2020. "Fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy COPRAS based multi-criteria decision making for hybrid wind farms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    29. Ayodele, T.R. & Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O. & Odigie, O. & Munda, J.L., 2018. "A multi-criteria GIS based model for wind farm site selection using interval type-2 fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: The case study of Nigeria," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1853-1869.
    30. A. Dinmohammadi & M. Shafiee, 2017. "Determination of the Most Suitable Technology Transfer Strategy for Wind Turbines Using an Integrated AHP-TOPSIS Decision Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    31. Díaz, H. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "An integrated GIS approach for site selection of floating offshore wind farms in the Atlantic continental European coastline," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    32. Varvara Mytilinou & Estivaliz Lozano-Minguez & Athanasios Kolios, 2018. "A Framework for the Selection of Optimum Offshore Wind Farm Locations for Deployment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, July.
    33. Soroudi, Alireza & Amraee, Turaj, 2013. "Decision making under uncertainty in energy systems: State of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 376-384.
    34. Dragan Pamučar & Ljubomir Gigović & Zoran Bajić & Miljojko Janošević, 2017. "Location Selection for Wind Farms Using GIS Multi-Criteria Hybrid Model: An Approach Based on Fuzzy and Rough Numbers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-23, July.
    35. Paweł Ziemba & Jarosław Wątróbski & Magdalena Zioło & Artur Karczmarczyk, 2017. "Using the PROSA Method in Offshore Wind Farm Location Problems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    36. Jennifer C. Wilson & Mike Elliott & Nick D. Cutts & Lucas Mander & Vera Mendão & Rafael Perez-Dominguez & Anna Phelps, 2010. "Coastal and Offshore Wind Energy Generation: Is It Environmentally Benign?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 3(7), pages 1-40, July.
    37. Denis Bouyssou & Thierry Marchant & Marc Pirlot & Alexis Tsoukiàs & Philippe Vincke, 2006. "Evaluation and Decision Models with Multiple Criteria," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-31099-2, December.
    38. Villacreses, Geovanna & Gaona, Gabriel & Martínez-Gómez, Javier & Jijón, Diego Juan, 2017. "Wind farms suitability location using geographical information system (GIS), based on multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods: The case of continental Ecuador," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 275-286.
    39. Roy, B. & Vincke, Ph., 1987. "Pseudo-orders: Definition, properties and numerical representation," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 263-274, December.
    40. Wierzbowski, Michal & Filipiak, Izabela & Lyzwa, Wojciech, 2017. "Polish energy policy 2050 – An instrument to develop a diversified and sustainable electricity generation mix in coal-based energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 51-70.
    41. Paweł Ziemba, 2020. "Multi-Criteria Stochastic Selection of Electric Vehicles for the Sustainable Development of Local Government and State Administration Units in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.
    42. Chaouachi, Aymen & Covrig, Catalin Felix & Ardelean, Mircea, 2017. "Multi-criteria selection of offshore wind farms: Case study for the Baltic States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 179-192.
    43. Xu, Chuanbo & Wu, Yunna & Dai, Shuyu, 2020. "What are the critical barriers to the development of hydrogen refueling stations in China? A modified fuzzy DEMATEL approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    44. Xu, Ye & Li, Ye & Zheng, Lijun & Cui, Liang & Li, Sha & Li, Wei & Cai, Yanpeng, 2020. "Site selection of wind farms using GIS and multi-criteria decision making method in Wafangdian, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    45. Paweł Ziemba, 2019. "Inter-Criteria Dependencies-Based Decision Support in the Sustainable wind Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-29, February.
    46. Mytilinou, Varvara & Kolios, Athanasios J., 2019. "Techno-economic optimisation of offshore wind farms based on life cycle cost analysis on the UK," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 439-454.
    47. Risto Lahdelma & Pekka Salminen, 2016. "SMAA in Robustness Analysis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Michael Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis & Evangelos Grigoroudis (ed.), Robustness Analysis in Decision Aiding, Optimization, and Analytics, chapter 0, pages 1-20, Springer.
    48. Guitouni, Adel & Martel, Jean-Marc, 1998. "Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 501-521, September.
    49. Mengran Li & Ye Xu & Junhong Guo & Ye Li & Wei Li, 2020. "Application of a GIS-Based Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Evaluation Approach for Wind Farm Site Selection in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-19, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2022. "Models and Indices of Sustainability Assessment in the Energy Context," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Alessandro Scuderi & Agata Matarazzo & Giovanni La Via & Mariarita Cammarata & Giuseppe Timpanaro, 2022. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Investment Choices Following Flood Damage: The Case Study of Sustainable Citrus Farming in Sicily," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Wątróbski, Jarosław & Bączkiewicz, Aleksandra & Sałabun, Wojciech, 2022. "New multi-criteria method for evaluation of sustainable RES management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    4. Qu, Chunzi & Bang, Rasmus Noss, 2023. "Comparative Investment Analysis of Wind and Nuclear Energy: Assessing the Impact of Changes in the Electricity Mix and Required Government Support for Investment Parity," Discussion Papers 2023/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    5. Magdalena Maciaszczyk & Aneta Czechowska-Kosacka & Agnieszka Rzepka & Tomasz Lipecki & Ewa Łazuka & Paweł Wlaź, 2022. "Consumer Awareness of Renewable Energy Sources: The Case of Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Paweł Ziemba, 2022. "Energy Security Assessment Based on a New Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Deveci, Muhammet & Pamucar, Dragan & Oguz, Elif, 2022. "Floating photovoltaic site selection using fuzzy rough numbers based LAAW and RAFSI model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paweł Ziemba, 2021. "Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Paweł Ziemba, 2021. "Selection of Electric Vehicles for the Needs of Sustainable Transport under Conditions of Uncertainty—A Comparative Study on Fuzzy MCDA Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-25, November.
    3. Xu, Ye & Li, Ye & Zheng, Lijun & Cui, Liang & Li, Sha & Li, Wei & Cai, Yanpeng, 2020. "Site selection of wind farms using GIS and multi-criteria decision making method in Wafangdian, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Bartłomiej Kizielewicz & Jarosław Wątróbski & Wojciech Sałabun, 2020. "Identification of Relevant Criteria Set in the MCDA Process—Wind Farm Location Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-40, December.
    5. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2021. "Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.
    6. Hugo Díaz & Carlos Guedes Soares, 2021. "A Multi-Criteria Approach to Evaluate Floating Offshore Wind Farms Siting in the Canary Islands (Spain)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Styliani Karamountzou & Dimitra G. Vagiona, 2023. "Suitability and Sustainability Assessment of Existing Onshore Wind Farms in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Paweł Ziemba & Jarosław Wątróbski & Magdalena Zioło & Artur Karczmarczyk, 2017. "Using the PROSA Method in Offshore Wind Farm Location Problems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Paweł Ziemba, 2020. "Multi-Criteria Stochastic Selection of Electric Vehicles for the Sustainable Development of Local Government and State Administration Units in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.
    10. Hugo Díaz & C. Guedes Soares, 2022. "Multicriteria Decision Approach to the Design of Floating Wind Farm Export Cables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-18, September.
    11. Forouli, Aikaterini & Gkonis, Nikolaos & Nikas, Alexandros & Siskos, Eleftherios & Doukas, Haris & Tourkolias, Christos, 2019. "Energy efficiency promotion in Greece in light of risk: Evaluating policies as portfolio assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 818-831.
    12. Elkadeem, Mohamed R. & Younes, Ali & Mazzeo, Domenico & Jurasz, Jakub & Elia Campana, Pietro & Sharshir, Swellam W. & Alaam, Mohamed A., 2022. "Geospatial-assisted multi-criterion analysis of solar and wind power geographical-technical-economic potential assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    13. Wimhurst, Joshua J. & Greene, J. Scott & Koch, Jennifer, 2023. "Predicting commercial wind farm site suitability in the conterminous United States using a logistic regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    14. Elkadeem, M.R. & Younes, Ali & Sharshir, Swellam W. & Campana, Pietro Elia & Wang, Shaorong, 2021. "Sustainable siting and design optimization of hybrid renewable energy system: A geospatial multi-criteria analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    15. Paweł Ziemba, 2019. "Towards Strong Sustainability Management—A Generalized PROSA Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-29, March.
    16. Díaz, H. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "A novel multi-criteria decision-making model to evaluate floating wind farm locations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 431-454.
    17. Md Rabiul Islam & Md Rakibul Islam & Hosen M. Imran, 2022. "Assessing Wind Farm Site Suitability in Bangladesh: A GIS-AHP Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    18. Díaz, H. & Silva, D. & Bernardo, C. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Micro sitting of floating wind turbines in a wind farm using a multi-criteria framework," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 449-474.
    19. Wu, Yunna & Liao, Mingjuan & Hu, Mengyao & Lin, Jiawei & Zhou, Jianli & Zhang, Buyuan & Xu, Chuanbo, 2020. "A decision framework of low-speed wind farm projects in hilly areas based on DEMATEL-entropy-TODIM method from the sustainability perspective: A case in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    20. Mateusz Piwowarski & Mariusz Borawski & Kesra Nermend, 2021. "The Problem of Non-Typical Objects in the Multidimensional Comparative Analysis of the Level of Renewable Energy Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-24, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:309:y:2022:i:c:s0306261921014975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.