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Quantifying efficiency technology improvements in U.S. cars from 1975–2009

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  • MacKenzie, Don
  • Heywood, John B.

Abstract

Quantitative measurements of historic improvements in fuel efficiency technology help to illuminate the feasibility of future fuel economy standards. Past investigations have produced widely varying estimates of this rate of improvement, though all seem to indicate that fuel consumption reductions implied by the 2025 U.S. CAFE standards cannot be met solely through technological improvements at historic rates. In this paper, we use the characteristics of U.S. cars between 1975 and 2009 to estimate that holding all else equal, a 1% increase in weight increases a car’s fuel consumption by 0.69%, and a 1% reduction in 0–97km/h acceleration time increases fuel consumption by 0.44%. These tradeoff parameters are combined with the results of related work by the authors and others, yielding a more comprehensive measure of technological improvements than has been previously reported. When accounting for all of these sources of improvement, we conclude that the per-mile (or per-kilometer) fuel consumption of new cars in the U.S. could have been reduced by 5% per year from 1975 to 1990, if acceleration, features, and functionality had remained at their 1975 levels. Approximately 80% of this potential was realized as actual reductions in fuel consumption. Between 1990 and 2009, in contrast, technological improvement averaged just 2.1% per year, only 34% of which was realized as actual fuel consumption reductions. To meet the 2025 CAFE standards for cars without sacrificing capabilities that consumers have come to expect, technology must improve quickly enough to reduce fuel consumption by 4.3% per year for 14years — considerably faster than has occurred since 1990, but consistent with the pace of improvements observed between 1975 and 1990.

Suggested Citation

  • MacKenzie, Don & Heywood, John B., 2015. "Quantifying efficiency technology improvements in U.S. cars from 1975–2009," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 918-928.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:157:y:2015:i:c:p:918-928
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.12.083
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Jihu Zheng & Rujie Yu & Yong Liu & Yuhong Zou & Dongchang Zhao, 2019. "The Technological Progress of the Fuel Consumption Rate for Passenger Vehicles in China: 2009–2016," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Paoli, Leonardo & Cullen, Jonathan, 2020. "Technical limits for energy conversion efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Craglia, Matteo & Cullen, Jonathan, 2019. "Do technical improvements lead to real efficiency gains? Disaggregating changes in transport energy intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Leard, Benjamin & Linn, Joshua & Springel, Katalin, 2020. "Have US Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards Improved Social Welfare?," RFF Working Paper Series 20-06, Resources for the Future.
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    8. Wang, Sinan & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2017. "Heuristic method for automakers' technological strategy making towards fuel economy regulations based on genetic algorithm: A China's case under corporate average fuel consumption regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 544-559.
    9. Zhou, Xun & Kuosmanen, Timo, 2020. "What drives decarbonization of new passenger cars?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 1043-1057.
    10. Hu, Kejia & Chen, Yuche, 2016. "Technological growth of fuel efficiency in european automobile market 1975–2015," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 142-148.
    11. Yu, Rujie & Ren, Huanhuan & Liu, Yong & Yu, Biying, 2021. "Gap between on-road and official fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Wu, Jingwen & Posen, I. Daniel & MacLean, Heather L., 2021. "Trade-offs between vehicle fuel economy and performance: Evidence from heterogeneous firms in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Wang, Yiwei & Miao, Qing, 2021. "The impact of the corporate average fuel economy standards on technological changes in automobile fuel efficiency," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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