IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v192y2021ics0308521x21001323.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysing price volatility in agricultural value chains using systems thinking: A case study of the Indonesian chilli value chain

Author

Listed:
  • Muflikh, Y.N.
  • Smith, C.
  • Brown, C.
  • Aziz, A.A.

Abstract

High price volatility in agricultural commodities can be a major issue for value chain actors exposed to its adverse economic impacts. Price volatility results from the interaction of multiple factors linked within dynamic and complex agricultural systems. Therefore, to address price volatility, the approach needs to be capable of analysing feedback that occurs in such complex systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Muflikh, Y.N. & Smith, C. & Brown, C. & Aziz, A.A., 2021. "Analysing price volatility in agricultural value chains using systems thinking: A case study of the Indonesian chilli value chain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:192:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x21001323
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X21001323
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103179?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Minot, Nicholas & Robles, Miguel, 2017. "Grain Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Markets in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 305-320.
    2. Barrett, Christopher B. & Bachke, Maren E. & Bellemare, Marc F. & Michelson, Hope C. & Narayanan, Sudha & Walker, Thomas F., 2012. "Smallholder Participation in Contract Farming: Comparative Evidence from Five Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 715-730.
    3. Joko Mariyono, 2019. "Stepping up from subsistence to commercial intensive farming to enhance welfare of farmer households in Indonesia," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 246-265, May.
    4. A J Higgins & C J Miller & A A Archer & T Ton & C S Fletcher & R R J McAllister, 2010. "Challenges of operations research practice in agricultural value chains," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(6), pages 964-973, June.
    5. Jonas Luckmann & Rico Ihle & Ulrich Kleinwechter & Harald Grethe, 2015. "Do Vietnamese upland farmers benefit from high world market prices for maize?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(S1), pages 1-11, November.
    6. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
    7. Dizyee, Kanar & Baker, Derek & Rich, Karl M., 2017. "A quantitative value chain analysis of policy options for the beef sector in Botswana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 13-24.
    8. Hassouneh, Islam & Radwan, Amr & Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Food scare crises and developing countries: The impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 264-274.
    9. Muflikh, Yanti Nuraeni & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2021. "A systematic review of the contribution of system dynamics to value chain analysis in agricultural development," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Pieters, Hannah & Swinnen, Johan, 2016. "Trading-off volatility and distortions? Food policy during price spikes," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    11. Thorpe, Jodie, 2018. "Procedural Justice in Value Chains Through Public–private Partnerships," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 162-175.
    12. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    13. Steve R. Harrison & M. Ejaz Qureshi, 2000. "Choice of stakeholder groups and members in multicriteria decision models," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 11-19, February.
    14. Rich, Karl M. & Rich, Magda & Dizyee, Kanar, 2018. "Participatory systems approaches for urban and peri-urban agriculture planning: The role of system dynamics and spatial group model building," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 110-123.
    15. Daphne M.I. Verreth & Grigorios Emvalomatis & Frank Bunte & Ron Kemp & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink, 2015. "Price Transmission, International Trade, and Asymmetric Relationships in the Dutch Agri‐Food Chain," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 521-542, October.
    16. Rich, Karl M. & Ross, R. Brent & Baker, A. Derek & Negassa, Asfaw, 2011. "Quantifying value chain analysis in the context of livestock systems in developing countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 214-222, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daria Loginova & Stefan Mann, 2022. "Institutional contributions to agricultural producer price stability," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Kiloes, Adhitya Marendra & Puspitasari, & Sulistyaningrum, Anna & Khaririyatun, Nur & Mulyono, Djoko & Prabawati, Sulusi & Anwarudin Syah, Mohammad Jawal & Devy, Nirmala Friyanti & Hardiyanto,, 2024. "Unravelling the provisioning system of a strategic food commodity to minimise import dependency: A study of garlic in Indonesia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Ye, Deping & Tang, Hong & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Wanglin Ma & Awal Abdul‐Rahaman & Gazali Issahaku, 2023. "Welfare implications of participating in agri‐value chains among vegetable farmers in Northern Ghana," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 793-811, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muflikh, Yanti Nuraeni & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2021. "A systematic review of the contribution of system dynamics to value chain analysis in agricultural development," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Berends, Jared & Rich, Karl M. & Kaitibie, Simeon & Lyne, Michael C., 2021. "Ex-ante evaluation of interventions to upgrade pork value chains in Southern Myanmar," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Kiloes, Adhitya Marendra & Puspitasari, & Sulistyaningrum, Anna & Khaririyatun, Nur & Mulyono, Djoko & Prabawati, Sulusi & Anwarudin Syah, Mohammad Jawal & Devy, Nirmala Friyanti & Hardiyanto,, 2024. "Unravelling the provisioning system of a strategic food commodity to minimise import dependency: A study of garlic in Indonesia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Cooper, Gregory S. & Rich, Karl M. & Shankar, Bhavani & Rana, Vinay & Ratna, Nazmun N. & Kadiyala, Suneetha & Alam, Mohammad J. & Nadagouda, Sharan B., 2021. "Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Ali, Muhammad Fadzli & Sulong, Siti Hawa & Julius, Kotir & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2022. "Using a participatory system dynamics modelling approach to inform the management of Malaysian rubber production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Utomo, Dhanan Sarwo & Onggo, Bhakti Stephan & Eldridge, Stephen, 2018. "Applications of agent-based modelling and simulation in the agri-food supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 794-805.
    7. Lie, Helene & Rich, Karl M. & van der Hoek, Rein & Dizyee, Kanar, 2018. "An empirical evaluation of policy options for inclusive dairy value chain development in Nicaragua: A system dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 193-222.
    8. Aboah, Joshua & Setsoafia, Edinam Dope, 2022. "Examining the synergistic effect of cocoa-plantain intercropping system on gross margin: A system dynamics modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Fausto, Cavalli, 2016. "A cobweb model with alternating demand and supply functions," Working Papers 325, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2016.
    10. Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.
    11. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Self-Sufficiency Policy: International Price Transmissions in Beef Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-23, July.
    12. Wilson Charles Wilson & Maja Slingerland & Frederick P. Baijukya & Hannah Zanten & Simon Oosting & Ken E. Giller, 2021. "Integrating the soybean-maize-chicken value chains to attain nutritious diets in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1595-1612, December.
    13. Akio Matsumoto, 1998. "Do Government Subsidies Stabilize Or Destabilize Agricultural Markets?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(4), pages 452-466, October.
    14. Colleta Gandidzanwa & Aart Jan Verschoor & Thabo Sacolo, 2021. "Evaluating Factors Affecting Performance of Land Reform Beneficiaries in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    15. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    16. Aysoy, Cevriye & Kirli, Duygu Halim & Tumen, Semih, 2015. "How does a shorter supply chain affect pricing of fresh food? Evidence from a natural experiment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 104-113.
    17. Hirsch, Stefan & Barissoul, Ayoub & Möhring, Niklas & Koppenberg, Maximilian, 2024. "Market power, profitability and the decision to exit organic dairy farming in the EU," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344258, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    18. Ashish Aman Sinha & Hari Charan Behera & Ajit Kumar Behura & Braja Bandhu Swain, 2021. "Land Allocation Choice in Both Contract and Non-Contract Farming: A Study of Potato Growers in West Bengal, India," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, September.
    19. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Valentyn Panchenko & Roy Weide, 2008. "E&F Chaos: A User Friendly Software Package for Nonlinear Economic Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 221-244, September.
    20. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Fabrizio Bresciani, 2016. "Dynamics of Rural Transformation and Poverty and Inequality in Asia and the Pacific," Discussion Paper Series DP2016-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Feb 2019.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:192:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x21001323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.