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How does the Exchange Rate Movement Affect Macroeconomic Performance? A VAR Analysis with Sign Restriction Approach– Evidence from Turkey


  • Hakan M. Berument

    () (Bilkent University)

  • Zulal S Denaux

    () (Valdosta State University)

  • Yeliz Yalcin

    () (Gazi University)


In this paper, we assess the effect of exchange rate movement on macroeconomic performance by differentiating the source of exchange rate movement as either an expansionary monetary policy or a portfolio preference shock using quarterly data from Turkish economy for the period 1987:Q1 to 2008:Q3. Empirical evidence suggest that if the depreciation of the exchange rate stems from an expansionary monetary policy shock, then the effect of currency depreciation on the economy is expansionary. On the other hand, if currency depreciation comes from a portfolio choice allocation, then the effect of exchange rate deprecation on the economy is contractionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan M. Berument & Zulal S Denaux & Yeliz Yalcin, 2012. "How does the Exchange Rate Movement Affect Macroeconomic Performance? A VAR Analysis with Sign Restriction Approach– Evidence from Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 295-305.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00545

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. M. Berument & Selahattin Togay & Afsin Sahin, 2011. "Identifying the Liquidity Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks for a Small Open Economy: Turkey," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 649-667, September.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August.
    4. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Umit Bulut, 2016. "May Monetary Transmission Lags Have a Role in Missing Inflation Targets in Turkey? Cointegration Tests with Structural Breaks and Structural VAR Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 93-103, April.

    More about this item


    Exchange Rates; Monetary Policy; Vector Autoregression and Sign Restrictions.;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General


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