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The dynamics of the volatility – trading volume relationship: New evidence from developed and emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Loredana Ureche-Rangau

    () (Université de Picardie Jules Verne, CRIISEA)

  • Fabien Collado

    () (Msc student, Ieseg School of Management)

  • Ulysse Galiay

    () (Msc student, Ieseg School of Management)

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates whether there is an evolution in the relation between stock market trading volume and volatility in 23 developed and 15 emerging markets. To answer this question, we develop a dynamic application of the TARCH (1, 1) model and first prove that the relationship is variable through time. Then, we focus our analysis on three major financial events, namely the Asian Crisis, the Dot Com bubble burst and the Subprime crisis. We find that the explanatory power of volume is greater during these periods. Finally, we show that the sign of the relationship cannot be clearly set for a specific country or sub group of developed or emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Fabien Collado & Ulysse Galiay, 2011. "The dynamics of the volatility – trading volume relationship: New evidence from developed and emerging markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2569-2583.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00196
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I3-P231.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2008. "Does trading volume really explain stock returns volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 216-235, July.
    2. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    3. Saatcioglu, Kemal & Starks, Laura T., 1998. "The stock price-volume relationship in emerging stock markets: the case of Latin America," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-225, June.
    4. Niklas Wagner & Terry A. Marsh, 2004. "Surprise Volume and Heteroskedasticity in Equity Market Returns," Econometrics 0409009, EconWPA.
    5. Ping Wang & Peijie Wang & Aying Liu, 2005. "Stock return volatility and trading volume: evidence from the chinese stock market," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 39-54.
    6. Gabriele Galati, 2000. "Trading volumes, volatility and spreads in foreign exchange markets: evidence from emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 93, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Manabu Asai & Angelo Unite, 2008. "The relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume: the case of the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1333-1341.
    8. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2006. "Stochastic Volatility, Trading Volume, and the Daily Flow of Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1551-1590, May.
    9. Lobato, Ignacio N & Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Long Memory in Stock-Market Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 410-427, October.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    12. Harris, Lawrence, 1987. "Transaction Data Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 127-141, June.
    13. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    14. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fredj Jawadi & Waël Louhichi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Rivo Randrianarivony, 2016. "Intraday jumps and trading volume: a nonlinear Tobit specification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1167-1186, November.
    2. Jawadi Fredj & Ureche-Rangau Loredana, 2013. "Threshold linkages between volatility and trading volume: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 313-333, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mixture of distribution hypothesis; TARCH model; Conditional variance; Trading volume;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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