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Surprise Volume and Heteroskedasticity in Equity Market Returns

Author

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  • Niklas Wagner
  • Terry A. Marsh

Abstract

Heteroskedasticity in returns may be explainable by trading volume. We use different volume variables, including surprise volume---i.e. unexpected above-average trading activity---which is derived from uncorrelated volume innovations. Assuming weakly exogenous volume, we extend the Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) model by an asymmetric GARCH in-mean specification following Golsten et al. (1993). Model estimation for the U.S. as well as six large equity markets shows that surprise volume provides superior model fit and helps to explain volatility persistence as well as excess kurtosis. Surprise volume reveals a significant positive market risk premium, asymmetry, and a surprise volume effect in conditional variance. The findings suggest that, e.g., a surprise volume shock (breakdown)---i.e. large (small) contemporaneous and small (large) lagged surprise volume---relates to increased (decreased) conditional market variance and return.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklas Wagner & Terry A. Marsh, 2004. "Surprise Volume and Heteroskedasticity in Equity Market Returns," Econometrics 0409009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0409009
    Note: Type of Document - none; prepared on win; to print on hp;
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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