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Reconstructing trends in international migration with three questions in household surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Schoumaker

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Cris Beauchemin

    (Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED))

Abstract

Background: Data on migration trends are crucially lacking in developing countries. The lack of basic information on migration contrasts sharply with the increasing importance of migration in the policy agenda of both sending and receiving countries. Objective: The general objectives of this paper are: to show how trends in international migration can be reconstructed with three questions in a household survey; to evaluate the precision of the estimates; and to test how sensitive the estimates are to several methodological choices and assumptions. Methods: Migration trends are reconstructed with event history models. The reconstruction uses data collected through migration surveys conducted in cities in three countries (Senegal, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ghana) as part of the MAFE (Migration between Africa and Europe) project. Specifically, two types of data are used: simple data on the first migration of children of household heads, collected through household surveys, and full migration histories of children collected in biographic surveys. First, we evaluate the precision of our estimates using data collected in the household questionnaire. Next, the sensitivity of our results to different methodological choices and assumptions is evaluated. Results: Migration trends measured with simple data from household surveys are broadly consistent with results obtained from full migration histories. However, increases in migration trends tend to be underestimated with household data. Migration probabilities are also affected by large confidence intervals. Conclusions: Estimates using household data may be affected by large confidence intervals, and migrations trends are influenced by the simplifying assumptions that are made when using these data. Despite these limitations, estimates based on three simple questions provide useful information on migration levels and trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Schoumaker & Cris Beauchemin, 2015. "Reconstructing trends in international migration with three questions in household surveys," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(35), pages 983-1030.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:32:y:2015:i:35
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruno Masquelier, 2013. "Adult Mortality From Sibling Survival Data: A Reappraisal of Selection Biases," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 207-228, February.
    2. Parsons, Christopher R. & Skeldon, Ronald & Walmsley, Terrie L. & Winters, L. Alan, 2007. "Quantifying international migration : a database of bilateral migrant stocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4165, The World Bank.
    3. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frans Willekens & Sabine Zinn & Matthias Leuchter, 2017. "Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2159-2179, December.
    2. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Paradigm, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    3. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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