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Australia Farewell: Predictors of Emigration in the 2000s

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  • Richard V. Burkhauser
  • Markus H. Hahn
  • Matthew Hall
  • Nicole Watson

Abstract

The factors leading individuals to immigrate to developed nations are widely studied, but comparatively less is known about those who emigrate from them. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative cohort of Australian adults to develop longitudinal measures of emigration and to assess how social ties and individual economic position predict emigration. Cox proportional hazards models indicate that the propensity to emigrate is particularly pronounced for those with relatively little social connectedness in Australia. Specifically, our results show that first-generation Australians, especially those with relatively short durations in the country, have substantially higher emigration rates than later-generation Australians. Similarly, having a partner with deeper generational roots in Australia strongly reduces the likelihood to emigrate. At the same time, our analysis also shows that economic position matters, with the not employed having higher risks of emigration. Perhaps most interestingly, estimates from our models reveal that those with university degrees are much more likely to emigrate than individuals with lower levels of education; a finding that is true for both first- and later-generation Australians.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard V. Burkhauser & Markus H. Hahn & Matthew Hall & Nicole Watson, 2016. "Australia Farewell: Predictors of Emigration in the 2000s," NBER Working Papers 21918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21918
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark, 2003. "Public policy and the labor market adjustment of new immigrants to Australia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 655-681, November.
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    3. Guy J. Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546, March.
    4. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-176, February.
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    6. Frédéric Docquier & B. Lindsay Lowell & Abdeslam Marfouk, 2009. "A Gendered Assessment of Highly Skilled Emigration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 297-321, June.
    7. Gregory, Bob, 2014. "The Two-Step Australian Immigration Policy and its Impact on Immigrant Employment Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 8061, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Commission, Productivity, 2010. "Population and Migration: Understanding the Numbers," Research Papers 101, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
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    10. Beine, Michel & Docquier, Frederic & Rapoport, Hillel, 2001. "Brain drain and economic growth: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 275-289, February.
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    13. Edward Funkhouser, 1992. "Mass Emigration, Remittances, and Economic Adjustment: The Case of El Salvador in the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 135-176 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    16. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
    17. Patricia Reagan & Randall Olsen, 2000. "You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(3), pages 339-350, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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