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Geopolitical Tensions and Migration

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  • Malte Becker
  • Tobias Heidland

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the complex relationship between geopolitical tensions and migration, developing a framework to explore how these dynamics shape each other. We argue that geopolitical risks – such as wars, terrorism, and international disputes – are related in three ways to migration: Risks affecting the determinants of migration decisions, the reverse channel of migration influencing geopolitical risks, and the direct use of migration as a geopolitical tool. We then discuss the transmission channels and how country characteristics can affect the strength of effects. We highlight that geopolitical risks likely result in greater irregular migration and displacement in the long run and emphasize the importance of cross-country cooperation. Trans-Abstract: Dieses Papier untersucht die komplexe Beziehung zwischen geopolitischen Spannungen und Migration. Wir entwickeln ein Framework, das die Wechselwirkungen zwischen den beiden Komponenten beschreibt und zeigen auf, dass geopolitische Risiken wie Kriege, Terrorismus und internationale Konflikte über drei Kanäle mit Migration verbunden sind: indem Geopolitische Risiken die Determinanten von Migrationsentscheidungen beeinflussen; indem Migration geopolitische Risiken beeinflusst; und indem Migration direkt als geopolitisches Instrument genutzt wird. Anschließend erörtern wir die möglichen Ausprägungen dieser Kanäle und diskutieren, inwieweit sie von verschiedenen Länder-Charakteristika abhängen. Wir argumentieren, dass geopolitische Risiken längerfristig mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit in mehr irregulärer Migration und Vertreibung mündet und betonen die Bedeutung länderübergreifender Kooperation.

Suggested Citation

  • Malte Becker & Tobias Heidland, 2025. "Geopolitical Tensions and Migration," Vierteljahreshefte zur Arbeits- und Wirtschaftsforschung, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 2(1), pages 23-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqvaw:v2_y2025_i1_q1_p23-35
    DOI: 10.3790/vaw.2.1.23
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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