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Welfare Cost Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy Shocks

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  • Evans, Lynne
  • Kenc, Turalay

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of the welfare cost of volatility attributable to monetary and fiscal policy shocks. It uses a continuous-time stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model based on a recursive utility function that disentangles risk aversion from intertemporal substitution. We find that monetary and fiscal policy shocks may lead to opposite welfare effects: negative for monetary growth shocks, but positive for government expenditure shocks. Furthermore, we find that welfare costs are sensitive to the parameter values chosen for risk aversion and intertemporal substitution, and we conclude that welfare costs are potentially much larger than that found by Lucas, forcing some modification of the policy conclusions associated with Lucas's pioneering work.

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  • Evans, Lynne & Kenc, Turalay, 2003. "Welfare Cost Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 212-238, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:7:y:2003:i:02:p:212-238_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2011. "Long‐Term Growth And Short‐Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 646-672, June.
    2. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Pelloni, Alessandra & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Endogenous growth, monetary shocks and nominal rigidities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 103-107.
    3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Volatility, Growth and Labour Elasticity," Working Paper series 32_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Christian Bayer & Klaus Waelde, 2011. "Existence, Uniqueness and Stability of Invariant Distributions in Continuous-Time Stochastic Models," Working Papers 1111, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 21 Jul 2011.
    5. Evans, Lynne & Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "FOREX risk premia and policy uncertainty: a recursive utility analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2009. "Welfare cost of inflation in a stochastic balanced growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 650-658, May.
    7. Wälde, Klaus, 2011. "Production technologies in stochastic continuous time models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 616-622, April.
    8. Kenc, Turalay, 2004. "Taxation, risk-taking and growth: a continuous-time stochastic general equilibrium analysis with labor-leisure choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1511-1539, June.

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