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Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekte einer »Nulllösung«: Wegfall der EU- und US-Importzölle im Automobilsektor

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Jung
  • Timo Walter

Abstract

Im Handelsstreit zwischen der EU und den USA haben sich der Präsident der Europäischen Kommission, Jean-Claude Juncker, und der US-Präsident Donald Trump Ende Juli 2018 auf den schrittweisen Abbau von Zöllen in allen Sektoren mit Ausnahme des Automobilsektors geeinigt. Keine drei Wochen davor war vorgeschlagen worden, ausschließlich im Automobilsektor die vollständige Eliminierung von Zöllen anzustreben. Welche Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekte hätte eine solche Nulllösung für Deutschland, den Rest der EU und die USA? Mit Hilfe eines quantitativen Handelsmodells berechnen Benjamin Jung und Timo Walter, Universität Hohenheim, diese Effekte für drei Szenarien: In Szenario 1 wird angenommen, dass Deutschland handelspolitische Autonomie habe, so dass die Nulllösung im Automobilsektor bilateral zwischen Deutschland und den USA stattfinden kann. In Szenario 2 werden die Autozölle zwischen den USA und allen Mitgliedstaaten der EU auf null gesenkt. Im dritten Szenario eliminieren die EU und die USA ihre Zölle im Automobilsektor gegenüber allen WTO-Mitgliedern. Die Simulationen zeigen, dass Deutschland, die EU und die USA am meisten im Rahmen des dritten Szenarios profitieren würden. Ein bilateraler Alleingang von Deutschland und den USA bzw. zwischen der EU und den USA wäre weniger von Vorteil.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Jung & Timo Walter, 2018. "Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekte einer »Nulllösung«: Wegfall der EU- und US-Importzölle im Automobilsektor," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(15), pages 26-29, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:15:p:26-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Braml & Gabriel Felbermayr & Wolfgang Weiß & Fritz Breuss & Christoph Scherrer & Christoph Herrmann & Caroline Glöckle & Benjamin Jung & Tim Krieger & Laura Renner & Bernd Lange, 2018. "Handelskrieg und seine Folgen: Ist die WTO am Ende?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(11), pages 03-29, June.
    2. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario & Staub, Kevin E, 2012. "Trade Preferences and Bilateral Trade in Goods and Services: A Structural Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 9051, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    4. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    5. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Walter, 2022. "Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement between Japan and the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(4), pages 1199-1230, November.

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