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Incertitude de classement final et affluence en Ligue 1 française de football : une nouvelle approche

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  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet

Abstract

This study proposes a new method for estimating supporters? attendance in considering uncertainty about the games results and the final ranking of teams. Outcome uncertainty is expressed by some probabilities, which is determined according to the gap between team qualities. In this turn, the qualities of teams are randomly estimated by average wages of their players. However, unlike previous studies, these probabilities are further adjusted according to the past results of these specific teams during the championship. Moreover, instead of relying on an aggregate indicator to estimate the uncertainty about the final ranking, we estimate the probability of each possible final ranking. This procedure allows us to make use of a more complete information statistics in estimation than usually done in this kind of studies. We provide three main results. First, the effect that uncertainty about the match outcome has on supporters? attendance is positive, significant and non-linear. Second, concerning the final ranking, we identify two opposite effects on supporter?s behaviour. While their attendance is inversely related to the gap between the position of their preferred team and its followers in the ongoing ranking, their attendance is also higher if the gap between each teams in the final ranking is sufficiently low. Third, supporters? attendance is not linearly decreasing with the position of the supported team in the championship, but this link presents a sinusoidal curve. The reason is that supporters? attendance also depends on the likelihood of their team to accede to Europea League during the next season, and also on the likelihood of their team being drawn out of ?Ligue 1? at the end of the season. We also show that supporters? attendance is directly proportional to the uncertainty level about the championship final victory. In particular, the attractiveness of the championship is negatively affected by the recent financial power of PSG.

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  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet, 2018. "Incertitude de classement final et affluence en Ligue 1 française de football : une nouvelle approche," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 128(4), pages 641-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_284_0641
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    1. Guironnet, Jean-Pascal, 2023. "Competitive intensity and industry performance of professional sports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    uncertainty; Bayesian approach; football; attendance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Z28 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Policy

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