Une Europe monétaire à plusieurs vitesses ?. La demande de monnaie dans les grands pays de la zone euro (1979-1999)

The paper analyses the demand for money - measured by broad aggregates - in the four main euro-area countries (France, Germany, Italy and Spain) between 1979 and 1999. Two main questions are explored: 1) Is the demand-for-money function empirically stable in each country in the long and short term? 2) If so, are its coefficients similar in each country or are there significant differences? More generally the paper deals with the question of whether there has been a "return to normal" by demand for money after a period of instability due to financial innovation. The same VAR error correction model has been used for all countries. The main conclusions are: 1) There is evidence of significant differences in the demand-for-money function between the four main euro-area countries with, on the one hand, France and Germany - where the function is stable - and, on the other, Italy and Spain - where it is not; 2) More generally there is strong evidence supporting the assumption of a return to normal (i.e. stability) by the demand for money; however, its short-term dynamics are difficult to explain.