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German unification and the demand for German M3

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  • Stefan Gerlach

Abstract

This paper estimates a demand equation for German M3 over the period 1971:1-1989:4, and studies its ability to predict all-German M3 during 1990:l-1992:4 and (a measure of) western German M3 during 1990:l-1994:l. Although the out-of-sample prediction errors appear serially correlated, the equation passes stability tests for the western German data until 1993:4, but rejects in 1994:1. The model fails stability tests for the all-German data, largely because the jump in the money stock at unification is larger than that in nominal GDP. A slight modification of the model estimated using data for the period up to 1990:4 predicts all- German M3 very well in the period 1991:l-1992:4.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach, 1994. "German unification and the demand for German M3," BIS Working Papers 21, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. James M. Boughton, 1991. "Long-Run Money Demand in Large Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 1-32, March.
    4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    5. Rose, Andrew K, 1985. "An Alternative Approach to the American Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 439-455, November.
    6. Paul R Masson & Marcel Cassard & Timothy D. Lane, 1994. "ERM Money Supplies and the Transition to EMU," IMF Working Papers 94/1, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    8. den Butter, F. A. G. & Fase, M. M. G., 1981. "The demand for money in EEC countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 201-230.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March.
    2. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-136, December.
    4. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    5. Christian Bordes & Hélène Chevrou-Séverac & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2001. "Une Europe monétaire à plusieurs vitesses ? La demande de monnaie dans les grands pays de la zone euro (1979-1999)," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 51-71.
    6. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
    7. Renato Filosa, 1995. "Money demand stability and currency substitution in six European countries (1980-1992)," BIS Working Papers 30, Bank for International Settlements.

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