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A Firm‐level Examination of the Exports Puzzle: Why East Asian Exports Didn't Increase After the 1997–1998 Financial Crisis

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  • Garrick Blalock
  • Sonali Roy

Abstract

We analyse a detailed panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturing firms to characterise the exports puzzle: the surprising absence of export‐led growth after the massive currency devaluation during the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. Our results show that, consistent with trade theory predictions following better terms of trade, entry into export markets increased dramatically. In conflict with the same predictions, however, many pre‐crisis exporters quit exporting. Thus stagnant export growth cannot be attributable to a lack of entrepreneurial ambition or activity amongst would‐be exporters. Rather, it apparently resulted from constraints prohibiting continued exporting by pre‐crisis exporters. Managerial reports of perceived constraints reveal little about why so many firms ceased exporting. However, ‘better’ firms, as proxied by foreign ownership, involvement in research and development, or investment in training, were more likely to continue exporting post‐crisis.

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  • Garrick Blalock & Sonali Roy, 2007. "A Firm‐level Examination of the Exports Puzzle: Why East Asian Exports Didn't Increase After the 1997–1998 Financial Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 39-59, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:1:p:39-59
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2007.00871.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J & Levine, David I. I., 2005. "Financial Constraints on Investment in an Emerging Market Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Foreign Ownership," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt13z7799m, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    3. Mihir A. Desai & C. Fritz Foley & James R. Hines, Jr., 2003. "A Multinational Perspective on Capital Structure Choice and Internal Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 9715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joel Stiebale, 2011. "Do Financial Constraints Matter for Foreign Market Entry? A Firm‐level Examination," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 123-153, January.
    2. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J. R. Elliott & Supreeya Virakul, 2010. "Firm Heterogeneity, Origin of Ownership and Export Participation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 264-291, February.
    3. Akarım, Yasemin Deniz, 2013. "The impact of financial factors on export decisions: The evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 305-308.
    4. David Urbano & Maribel Guerrero & João J. Ferreira & Cristina I. Fernandes, 2019. "New technology entrepreneurship initiatives: Which strategic orientations and environmental conditions matter in the new socio-economic landscape?," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 1577-1602, October.
    5. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    6. Joel Stiebale, 2008. "Do Financial Constraints Matter for Foreign Market Entry? – A Firm-Level Examination," Ruhr Economic Papers 0051, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2009. "Financial Market Imperfections and the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    8. Youssouf KIENDREBEOGO, 2012. "Export Activity and Productivity: New Evidence from the Egyptian Manufacturing Industry," Working Papers 201220, CERDI.
    9. Alexandru Voicu, 2008. "Adding Rungs to the Exporting Ladder: Plant-Level Exporting Dynamics and Total Factor Productivity Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    10. Kin Tang & Hui Tan & Niaz Naseem, 2013. "The effect of foreign currency borrowing and financial development on exports: a dynamic panel analysis on Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 460-476.
    11. Greenaway, David & Guariglia, Alessandra & Kneller, Richard, 2007. "Financial factors and exporting decisions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 377-395, November.
    12. Blalock, Garrick & Gertler, Paul J. & Levine, David I., 2008. "Financial constraints on investment in an emerging market crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 568-591, April.
    13. Mohamed Ben Abdallah & Zouheir Bouchaddakh, 2013. "Banking and Monetary Crises: Impacts on Exports of MENA Countries," Working Papers 786, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2013.
    14. Greenaway, David & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Exporting, productivity and agglomeration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 919-939, July.
    15. Voicu, Alexandru, 2008. "Adding Rungs to the Exporting Ladder: Plant-Level Exporting Dynamics and Total Factor Productivity Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3807, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. repec:zbw:rwirep:0051 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bergin, Paul R. & Feng, Ling & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Trade and firm financing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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