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Latent Multilateral Trade Resistance Indices: Theory and Evidence

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  • Wilfried Koch
  • James P. LeSage

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="sjpe12074-abs-0001"> Anderson and van Wincoop (American Economic Review (2003), 69 :106) make a convincing argument that traditional gravity equation estimates are biased by the omission of multilateral resistance terms. They show that these multilateral resistance terms are implicitly defined by a system of non-linear equations involving all regions' GDP shares and a global interdependence structure involving trade costs. We show how linearizing the system of non-linear relationships around a free trade world leads to an interdependence structure that can be used as a Bayesian prior to produce statistical estimates of the inward and outward multilateral resistance indices. This reflects a statistical approach that has advantages over the non-stochastic numerical approach used by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) to solve for these indices.

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  • Wilfried Koch & James P. LeSage, 2015. "Latent Multilateral Trade Resistance Indices: Theory and Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 62(3), pages 264-290, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:62:y:2015:i:3:p:264-290
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    3. Rodolfo Metulini & Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith, 2018. "A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, February.
    4. Philipp Piribauer & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2016. "Bayesian Variable Selection in Spatial Autoregressive Models," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 457-479, October.
    5. Tamás Krisztin & Philipp Piribauer, 2021. "Modelling European regional FDI flows using a Bayesian spatial Poisson interaction model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 593-616, December.
    6. Manfred M. Fischer & James P. LeSage, 2020. "Network dependence in multi-indexed data on international trade flows," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Carlos Llano-Verduras & Santiago Pérez-Balsalobre & Ana Rincón-Aznar, 2021. "Market fragmentation and the rise of sub-national regulation," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 765-797, December.
    8. James Paul LeSage & Manfred M. Fischer, 2020. "Cross-sectional dependence model specifications in a static trade panel data setting," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 5-46, January.
    9. Clément Gorin, 2016. "Patterns and determinants of inventors' mobility across European urban areas," Working Papers halshs-01313086, HAL.
    10. Debarsy, Nicolas & LeSage, James, 2018. "Flexible dependence modeling using convex combinations of different types of connectivity structures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-68.
    11. Çekyay, Bora & Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun & Ulengin, Burç & Toktaş Palut, Peral & Özaydın, Özay, 2020. "A multi-commodity network flow and gravity model integration for analyzing impact of road transport quotas on international trade," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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