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Tests for Long-Run Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems

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  • Taku Yamamoto
  • Eiji Kurozumi

Abstract

In this article, we propose a new approach to test the hypothesis of long-run Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems. We circumvent the problem of singularity of the covariance matrix associated with the usual Wald-type test by proposing a generalized inverse procedure. A test for the ranks of submatrices of the cointegration matrix and its orthogonal matrix plays a vital role in our procedure. The relevant small-sample experiments indicate that the proposed method performs reasonably well in finite samples. As empirical applications, we examine long-run causal relations among long-term interest rates of three nations. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Taku Yamamoto & Eiji Kurozumi, 2006. "Tests for Long-Run Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 703-723, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:27:y:2006:i:5:p:703-723
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yiannis Kamarianakis & Vagelis Kaslis, 2005. "Geographical competition-complementarity relationships between Greek regional economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p552, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Majid M. Al-Sadoon, 2015. "Testing subspace Granger causality," Economics Working Papers 1495, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Paolo Paruolo, 2006. "The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Rank of a Cointegration Submatrix," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 921-948, December.
    4. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
    5. Ingianni, Andrea, 2012. "Intra-European Union trade openness and new members’ output convergence: A time-series analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    6. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2014. "Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 558-568.
    7. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    8. Bilge Kagan Ozdemir, 2009. "Banking Sector Stability During The Process Of Euro Adoption," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, vol. 9(1), pages 123-1236, June.
    9. Stephanie-Carolin Grosche, 2014. "What Does Granger Causality Prove? A Critical Examination of the Interpretation of Granger Causality Results on Price Effects of Index Trading in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 279-302, June.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1483 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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