Modelling the evolution of distributions: an application to Major League baseball
We develop Bayesian techniques for modelling the evolution of entire distributions over time and apply them to the distribution of team performance in Major League baseball for the period 1901-2000. Such models offer insight into many key issues (e.g. competitive balance) in a way that regression-based models cannot. The models involve discretizing the distribution and then modelling the evolution of the bins over time through transition probability matrices. We allow for these matrices to vary over time and across teams. We find that, with one exception, the transition probability matrices (and, hence, competitive balance) have been remarkably constant across time and over teams. The one exception is the Yankees, who have outperformed all other teams. Copyright 2004 Royal Statistical Society.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 167 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX, United Kingdom|
Web page: http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rssa
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://ordering.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/subs.asp?ref=1467-985X&doi=10.1111/(ISSN)1467-985X|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998.
"The New Empirics of Economic Growth,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Gao, Jian, 2002.
"Bayesian analysis of nested logit model by Markov chain Monte Carlo,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 103-133, November.
- Kajal Lahiri & Jian Gao, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis of Nested Logit Model by Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Discussion Papers 01-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Andrew J. Filardo & Stephen F. Gordon, 1993.
"Business cycle durations,"
Research Working Paper
93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Nobile, Agostino, 2000. "Comment: Bayesian multinomial probit models with a normalization constraint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 335-345, December.
- Dale J. Poirier, 1995. "Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics: A Comparative Approach," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161494, March.
- Danny Quah, 1992.
"Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- McCulloch, Robert E. & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "A Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model with fully identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 173-193, November.
- John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane, 1997. "Mixture of normals probit models," Staff Report 237, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- McCulloch, Robert & Rossi, Peter E., 1994. "An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 207-240.
- Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
- Szymanski, Stefan, 2001. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F69-84, February.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
- Paapaa, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K., 1998. "Distribution and mobility of wealth of nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(7), pages 1269-1293, July.
- Simon Rottenberg, 1956. "The Baseball Players' Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 242-242.
- Vrooman, John, 2000. "The Economics of American Sports Leagues," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(4), pages 364-98, September.
- Flynn, Michael A & Gilbert, Richard J, 2001. "The Analysis of Professional Sports Leagues as Joint Ventures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages F27-46, February.
- Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
- McCulloch, Robert E. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "Reply to Nobile," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 347-348, December.
- Koop, Gary & Poirier, Dale J., 1993. "Bayesian analysis of logit models using natural conjugate priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 323-340, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:167:y:2004:i:4:p:639-655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.