IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Input‐Output Forecasting Of Regional Agricultural Policy Impacts


  • P. Midmore


Input‐output coefficients and multipliers based upon them are increasingly being used to evaluate the impact of changes in agricultural policies, yet there are a number of specific difficulties with regard to their use in this context. This paper articulates various criticisms which can be made, and tests their validity by comparing multiplier forecasts with out‐turns from a series of eight input‐output tables describing the Welsh agricultural sector. The predictive performance deteriorates rapidly as the time between base matrix and forecast year increases; more attention needs to be paid to the forecasting of final demand, spill‐over effects into other sectors, and the functional relationship between labour input and gross output.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Midmore, 1993. "Input‐Output Forecasting Of Regional Agricultural Policy Impacts," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 284-300, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:44:y:1993:i:2:p:284-300
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00272.x

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lahiri, Sajal & Satchell, Steve, 1986. "Properties of the expected value of the leontief inverse: Some further results," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 69-82, February.
    2. Mules, T.J., 1983. "Input-Output Analysis in Australia: An Agricultural Perspective," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(01), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Yoshinori Morimoto, 1970. "On Aggregation Problems in Input-Output Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 119-126.
    4. Gerking, Shelby D, 1976. "Input-Output as a Simple Econometric Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(3), pages 274-282, August.
    5. B. W. Gould & S. N. Kulshreshtha, 1985. "An Input-Output Analysis of the Impacts of Increased Export Demand for Saskatchewan Products," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 33(2), pages 127-149, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Christos T. Papadas & Dale C. Dahl, 1999. "Supply‐Driven Input‐Output Multipliers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 269-285, May.
    2. Konstantinos Mattas & C. Ciobanu & Demetrios Psaltopoulos, 2010. "Prospects of Changes in Regional Economic Structures since EU Accession," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 8(1), pages 55-72.
    3. Elena G. Irwin & Andrew M. Isserman & Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "A Century of Research on Rural Development and Regional Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 522-553.
    4. Psaltopoulos, Dimitrios & Phimister, Euan & Ratinger, Tomas & Roberts, Deborah & Skuras, Dimitris & Santini, Fabien & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio & Balamou, Eudokia & Espinosa, Maria & Mary, Sebastien, 2011. "An Ex-ante Rural/Urban Analysis of Common Agricultural Policy Options," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114780, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Eduardo Malagon-Zaldua & Mirene Begiristain-Zubillaga & Aintzira Onederra-Aramendi, 2018. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Farmers’ Markets on Local Economies in the Basque Country," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Psaltopoulos, Demetris & Balamou, Eudokia & Skuras, Dimitris & Ratinger, Tomas & Sieber, Stefan, 2011. "Modelling the impacts of CAP Pillar 1 and 2 measures on local economies in Europe: Testing a case study-based CGE-model approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-69, January.
    7. Midmore, Peter & Whittaker, Julie, 2000. "Economics for sustainable rural systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 173-189, November.
    8. Felici, F. & Paniccia, R. & Rocchi, Benedetto, 2008. "Economic Impact of Rural Development Plan 2007 2013 in Tuscany," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44256, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. D. Roberts, 1994. "A Modified Leontief Model For Analysing The Impact Of Milk Quotas On The Wider Economy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 90-99, January.
    10. Serrao, Amilcar, 1998. "Economic And Environmental Impacts Of The Post-1992 Cap Reforms On Alentejo Economy Of Portugal," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 21020, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Tiberti, M., 2013. "Production costs of Soft Wheat in Italy," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149898, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    12. Hristov, Jordan, 2015. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of climate change on Macedonian agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211747, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. G. Lindberg & P. Midmore & Y. Surry, 2012. "Agriculture’s Inter-industry Linkages, Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-575, September.
    14. Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Reforming The Cap: An Agenda For Regional Growth?," 109th Seminar, November 20-21, 2008, Viterbo, Italy 44868, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. A. Bonfiglio & B. Camaioni & S. Coderoni & R. Esposti & F. Pagliacci & F. Sotte, 2016. "Where does EU money eventually go? The distribution of CAP expenditure across the European space," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 693-727, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    2. Ashkan Masouman & Charles Harvie, 2017. "Measuring Economic Change in the Illawarra, New South Wales: An Integrated Framework," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(3), pages 294-308, July.
    3. de Souza, João Paulo A. & Gómez-Ramírez, Leopoldo, 2018. "The paradox of Mexico's export boom without growth: A demand-side explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-113.
    4. Nijkamp, Peter & Oosterhaven, Jan & Ouwersloot, Hans & Rietveld, Piet, 1992. "Qualitative data and error measurement in input-output analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 408-418, October.
    5. Iris Claus & Kathy Li, 2003. "New Zealand’s Production Structure: An International Comparison," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/16, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Guaderrama, M. C. & Meyer, N. & Harp, A. & Fox, L. & Taylor, R. G., 2000. "The Clark County Economy Regional Input/Output Model," A.E. Extension Series 305006, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    7. Guaderrama, M. C. & Meyer, N. & Harp, A. & Taylor R. G., 2000. "Replacement Of Timber Harvest And Manufacturing With Recreational Visitors As Economic Base: Case Of Valley County, Idaho," A.E. Extension Series 304785, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    8. Thijs ten Raa & Pieter Kop Jansen, 1998. "Bias and Sensitivity of Multipliers," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 275-284.
    9. Christa Court & Randall W. Jackson, 2010. "Time Dynamics and the Introduction of New Technologies within IO Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2010-03, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    10. Mules, T.J., 1985. "Where There's Smoke There's Fire - An Apology and a Statement," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 53(01), pages 1-3, April.
    11. Sergio Rey & Guy West & Mark Janikas, 2004. "Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-277.
    12. repec:rri:wpaper:201003 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Marin, Giovanni & Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Montini, Anna, 2012. "Linking NAMEA and Input output for ‘consumption vs. production perspective’ analyses," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 71-84.
    14. Gurgul, Henryk, 2007. "Stochastic input-output modeling," MPRA Paper 68573, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    15. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Measuring Bilateral Exports of Value Added: A Unified Framework," NBER Chapters, in: The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lindberg, Gunnar, 2011. "Linkages: economic analysis of agriculture in the wider economy," Department of Economics publications 2432, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Economics.
    17. G. Lindberg & P. Midmore & Y. Surry, 2012. "Agriculture’s Inter-industry Linkages, Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-575, September.
    18. Coste, Christophe F.D. & Austerlitz, Frédéric & Pavard, Samuel, 2017. "Trait level analysis of multitrait population projection matrices," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-58.
    19. Pei, Pei & Wu, Ziping & Longo, Alberto, 2015. "Developing a Rural-Urban Social Accounting Matrix for Northern Ireland," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204288, Agricultural Economics Society.
    20. Guaderrama, Marisa & Meyer, Neil & Harp, Aaron & Rimbey, Neil & Darden, Tim & Gibson, Chad & Taylor, R. G., 1999. "The Owyhee County Economy," A.E. Extension Series 305012, University of Idaho, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    21. A. M. P. Santos & R. Salvador & C. Guedes Soares, 2018. "A dynamic view of the socioeconomic significance of ports," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(2), pages 169-189, June.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:44:y:1993:i:2:p:284-300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.