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Input‐Output Forecasting Of Regional Agricultural Policy Impacts

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  • P. Midmore

Abstract

Input‐output coefficients and multipliers based upon them are increasingly being used to evaluate the impact of changes in agricultural policies, yet there are a number of specific difficulties with regard to their use in this context. This paper articulates various criticisms which can be made, and tests their validity by comparing multiplier forecasts with out‐turns from a series of eight input‐output tables describing the Welsh agricultural sector. The predictive performance deteriorates rapidly as the time between base matrix and forecast year increases; more attention needs to be paid to the forecasting of final demand, spill‐over effects into other sectors, and the functional relationship between labour input and gross output.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Midmore, 1993. "Input‐Output Forecasting Of Regional Agricultural Policy Impacts," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 284-300, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:44:y:1993:i:2:p:284-300
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.1993.tb00272.x
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    1. Lahiri, Sajal & Satchell, Steve, 1986. "Properties of the expected value of the leontief inverse: Some further results," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 69-82, February.
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    1. Christos T. Papadas & Dale C. Dahl, 1999. "Supply‐Driven Input‐Output Multipliers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 269-285, May.
    2. Konstantinos Mattas & C. Ciobanu & Demetrios Psaltopoulos, 2010. "Prospects of Changes in Regional Economic Structures since EU Accession," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 8(1), pages 55-72.
    3. Elena G. Irwin & Andrew M. Isserman & Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "A Century of Research on Rural Development and Regional Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 522-553.
    4. Psaltopoulos, Dimitrios & Phimister, Euan & Ratinger, Tomas & Roberts, Deborah & Skuras, Dimitris & Santini, Fabien & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio & Balamou, Eudokia & Espinosa, Maria & Mary, Sebastien, 2011. "An Ex-ante Rural/Urban Analysis of Common Agricultural Policy Options," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114780, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Eduardo Malagon-Zaldua & Mirene Begiristain-Zubillaga & Aintzira Onederra-Aramendi, 2018. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Farmers’ Markets on Local Economies in the Basque Country," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Psaltopoulos, Demetris & Balamou, Eudokia & Skuras, Dimitris & Ratinger, Tomas & Sieber, Stefan, 2011. "Modelling the impacts of CAP Pillar 1 and 2 measures on local economies in Europe: Testing a case study-based CGE-model approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-69, January.
    7. Midmore, Peter & Whittaker, Julie, 2000. "Economics for sustainable rural systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 173-189, November.
    8. Felici, F. & Paniccia, R. & Rocchi, Benedetto, 2008. "Economic Impact of Rural Development Plan 2007 2013 in Tuscany," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44256, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. D. Roberts, 1994. "A Modified Leontief Model For Analysing The Impact Of Milk Quotas On The Wider Economy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 90-99, January.
    10. Serrao, Amilcar, 1998. "Economic And Environmental Impacts Of The Post-1992 Cap Reforms On Alentejo Economy Of Portugal," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 21020, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Tiberti, M., 2013. "Production costs of Soft Wheat in Italy," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149898, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    12. Hristov, Jordan, 2015. "An exploratory analysis of the impact of climate change on Macedonian agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211747, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. G. Lindberg & P. Midmore & Y. Surry, 2012. "Agriculture’s Inter-industry Linkages, Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-575, September.
    14. Esposti, Roberto, 2008. "Reforming The Cap: An Agenda For Regional Growth?," 109th Seminar, November 20-21, 2008, Viterbo, Italy 44868, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. A. Bonfiglio & B. Camaioni & S. Coderoni & R. Esposti & F. Pagliacci & F. Sotte, 2016. "Where does EU money eventually go? The distribution of CAP expenditure across the European space," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(4), pages 693-727, November.

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