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When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland

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  • Jan Gromadzki
  • Katarzyna Sałach
  • Michał Brzeziński

Abstract

We estimate the effects of the introduction of a large cash transfer programme on support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual cash transfer amount received per capita, and use a difference‐in‐differences research design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that a cash transfer amount of $100 per capita translated into an increase in the vote share for the ruling party of nearly two percentage points. One‐third of additional votes came from new voters coming off the sidelines, and the remaining electoral gains were due to voters who had previously voted for other parties. The effects of the programme are persistent, as we see no decrease in the magnitude of effects seven years after the introduction.

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  • Jan Gromadzki & Katarzyna Sałach & Michał Brzeziński, 2024. "When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(361), pages 320-345, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:91:y:2024:i:361:p:320-345
    DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12505
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzezinski & Katarzyna Sałach‐Dróżdż, 2024. "The short‐term macroeconomic impact of populism: A case study of Poland," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 832-867, July.
    2. Michał Brzeziński & Katarzyna Sałach-Dróżdż, 2023. "Prudent populists? The short-term macroeconomic impact of populist policies in Poland," Working Papers 2023-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Kühnast, Julia, 2022. "Growth regimes of populist governments: A comparative study on Hungary and Poland," IPE Working Papers 199/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Wysocki, Maciej & Wojcik, Cezary & Freytag, Andreas, 2024. "Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Benczes, István & Szijártó, Norbert, 2024. "Államháztartási kiadások alakulása populista kormányok alatt Kelet-Közép-Európában [Public expenditure under populist governments in Central and Eastern Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1001-1031.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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