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Universal Child Benefit and Child Poverty: The Role of Fertility Adjustments

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  • Gromadzki, Jan

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

I study fertility adjustments after the introduction of a large universal child benefit in Poland. The program caused a six percent increase in the number of births. Patterns of selection into parenthood changed significantly and persistently, with a weakening of positive selection based on education and a strengthening of negative selection based on income. The share of births in the bottom half of the income distribution increased from 51 percent to 58 percent. Using a microsimulation approach, I combine changes in the births structure with existing estimates of the transfer's effect on labor supply to study the impact of these adjustments on poverty reduction. These impacts are very small due to the exceptional generosity of the transfer, but they become more pronounced in the middle of the income distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Gromadzki, Jan, 2024. "Universal Child Benefit and Child Poverty: The Role of Fertility Adjustments," IZA Discussion Papers 17456, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Aizer & Hilary W. Hoynes & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2022. "Children and the US Social Safety Net: Balancing Disincentives for Adults and Benefits for Children," NBER Working Papers 29754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Michael Baker & Derek Messacar & Mark Stabile, 2023. "Effects of Child Tax Benefits on Poverty and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Canada Child Benefit and Universal Child Care Benefit," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(4), pages 1129-1182.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; child benefit; unconditional cash transfer; poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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