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Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Fluctuations under Pegged Exchange Rates

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  • PIERRE‐RICHARD AGÉNOR

Abstract

The effects of an adverse change in market sentiment, defined as a temporary increase in the premium faced by domestic borrowers on world financial markets, are studied in an intertemporal optimizing framework with imperfect capital mobility. Firms' demands for working capital are financed by bank credit. The shock leads to a rise in domestic interest rates, capital outflows and a drop in official reserves, a reduction in bank deposits and loans, a contraction in output, and an increase in unemployment. These predictions are consistent with Argentina's economic downturn in the immediate aftermath of the Mexican peso crisis of December 1994.

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  • Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2006. "Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Fluctuations under Pegged Exchange Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 579-604, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:73:y:2006:i:292:p:579-604
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00508.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    2. P.R. Agenor & J. Aizenman & A. Hoffmaister, 1998. "Contagion, Bank Lending Spreads and Output Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 6850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Verghis, Mathew & Yeldan, Erinc, 2006. "Disinflation, fiscal sustainability, and labor market adjustment in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3804, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter Montiel, 2008. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Credit-Based Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 423-455, September.
    2. Koray Alper, 2008. "Monetary Policy and External Shocks in a Dollarized Economy with Credit Market Imperfections," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(2), pages 33-73.
    3. Aloy, Marcel & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Nancy, Gilles, 2008. "Intertemporal adjustment and fiscal policy under a fixed exchange rate regime," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4607, The World Bank.

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