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Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections

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  • Paul Niekamp

Abstract

This paper uses the Survey of Consumer Expectations to study the effects of the 2016 and 2020 US elections on economic expectations. I find that Trump's 2016 election victory elicited broad‐based improvements in US stock price and debt expectations, transcending the “winning team.” Aggregate expectations of a US debt level decrease more than doubled. While stronger for white individuals, improvements were distributed across demographics, including predicted Democrat voters, except black individuals. I find no evidence that Biden's 2020 election victory elicited improvements in expectations of the “winning team.” Aggregate stock market expectations decreased and individuals anticipated a higher unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Niekamp, 2026. "Heterogeneity of shifts in economic expectations around elections," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 299-318, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:44:y:2026:i:2:p:299-318
    DOI: 10.1111/coep.70001
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