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Les déterminants du faible degré d'intégration commerciale de la CEEAC: le poids de la fragmentation politique, de la prolifération des Communautés Economiques Régionales et du niveau de démocratie

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  • Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem

Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est d'évaluer empiriquement le poids de la fragmentation politique, de la prolifération des Communautés Economiques Régionales et du niveau de démocratie dans l'explication du faible degré d'intégration commerciale de la Communauté Economique des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale (CEEAC). La méthodologie utilisée repose sur les avancées théoriques du modèle de gravité et des techniques d'estimation en panel. Ceteris paribus, les principaux résultats montrent que: (i) la fragmentation politique réduit le commerce bilatéral dans la CEEAC de 51,42 %; (ii) plus un pays de la CEEAC est membre d'accords régionaux concurrents, moins il commerce avec un autre pays de la CEEAC. Une augmentation de 1 % de l'indicateur de prolifération des Communautés Economiques Régionales se traduit par une réduction des exportations de 0,69 %; (iii) les pays de la CEEAC commercent également moins entre eux parce qu'ils sont peu démocratiques. Une diminution d'un écart†type par rapport à la moyenne du niveau de démocratie du pays importateur se traduit par une baisse des importations de 20,99 %. Ces résultats invitent les autorités de la CEEAC à agir prioritairement sur ces facteurs de répulsion pour parvenir à un niveau de commerce interne élevé.

Suggested Citation

  • Gislain Stéphane Gandjon Fankem, 2016. "Les déterminants du faible degré d'intégration commerciale de la CEEAC: le poids de la fragmentation politique, de la prolifération des Communautés Economiques Régionales et du niveau de démocratie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 383-396, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:28:y:2016:i:4:p:383-396
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12219
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    2. Dieudonné Mignamissi, 2020. "Convergence institutionnelle et commerce bilatéral en Afrique centrale," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 645-660, December.

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