Efficient-Market Hypothesis and the Global Financial Crises – on the Example of SOFIX, DJIA and DAX Indexes
The goal of the current study is to determine the information influence between the developed and developing capital market in the conditions of global financial crisis since 2007, discussed in the aspect of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH) on the example of the DJIA, DAX and SOFIX indexes. The empirical results show the determining influence of DJIA concerning the dynamic of the other studied indexes, especially in a period of crisis. Established are statistical evidences for rejecting the EMH assumptions concerning the Bulgarian capital market. The presence and direction of impact on it by the studied developed capital markets are clearly outlined. This impact is significant only in a period of crisis and shows the determining influence of DJIA to DAX concerning SOFIX. An econometric modeling concerning return and variability of the studied indexes is made through EGARCH models using Student-t distribution. There is an increase of the descriptive power of the applied models concerning return and variability of SOFIX when including data from DJIA. The analysis of the indicators information efficiency and asymmetry concerning the Bulgarian index shows the faster and bigger inclusion of negative information in the values of the index. The differences in presenting the market information and the determining influence of DJIA by DAX and SOFIX are clearly outlined. Such difference is present also concerning the manifestation of the so-called leverage effect. The study determines in percentage the influence of the information of the USA index on the variability of the Bulgarian one. The achieved results from this study reject the EMH assumptions and the suggestion of random wandering of the studied indexes, as well as the statement of a weak correlation between the developed and developing capital markets, especially in a period of a crisis.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+359 2) 810 40 18
Fax: (+359 2) 988 21 08
Web page: http://www.iki.bas.bg
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989.
"Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Hentschel, Ludger, 1995. "All in the family Nesting symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-104, September.
- Keith Jefferis & Graham Smith, 2005. "The Changing Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 54-67, 03.
- Chipo Mlambo & Nicholas Biekpe & Eon Smit, 2003. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis on Thinly-Traded Markets: The Case of Four African Stock Markets," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 5(1), pages 16-35.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
- Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
- Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
- Gregory Koutmos, 1999. "Asymmetric Price and Volatility Adjustments in Emerging Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 83-101.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995.
"Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2011:i:3:p:53-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diana Dimitrova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.